Real Sociedad II vs Almeria Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Real Sociedad II 2-4 Almeria.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Real Sociedad II, 25% draw, 44% Almeria — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Almeria at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Sociedad II vs Almeria
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Aitor FragaG
- 22RupérezD
- 15I. CalderonD
- 5K. KitaD
- 3Jon BaldaD
- 16Gorka GorosabelM
- 14Tomás CarbonellM
- 8Ibai AguirreM
- 7Dani DíazF
- 19Javier SoroetaF
- 17Lander AstiazaránF
- 34Andrews AdjabengF
- 18Gorka CarreraF
- 21Jon EceizabarrenaM
- 2Jon GarroD
- 10Arkaitz MariezkurrenaF
- 32Lander OlasagastiG
- 12J. OleagaM
- 20Sydney OsazuwaF
- 24A. UnaxD
- 1Andrés FernándezG
- 2Marcos LunaD
- 5Jorge PulidoD
- 18F. BoniniD
- 15Leonardo LeloD
- 29S. DžodićM
- 14Javi MuñozM
- 22D. ChirinoM
- 11Sergio ArribasM
- 17B. CipengaM
- 24Miguel de la FuenteF
- 23Adri EmbarbaF
- 9ThalysF
- 33Quim JunyentM
- 31Á. YaakobishviliG
- 20Álex SolaF
- 3Álex MuñozD
- 7Jon MorcilloF
- 10Nico MelamedM
- 13Fernando MartínezG
Form going into Real Sociedad II vs Almeria
Real Sociedad II
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Celta de Vigo II10 October 2026
- L2-3Granada CF4 October 2026
- L1-3away to AD Ceuta FC26 September 2026
- L0-1Mallorca19 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Andorra12 September 2026
Almeria
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Leganes11 October 2026
- W2-1Burgos3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Mallorca27 September 2026
- W2-0Celta de Vigo II20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Cordoba12 September 2026
What these results say
- Real Sociedad II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad II failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Almeria won every one of these 5 matches.
- Almeria scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Almeria kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Real Sociedad II | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 13 |
| 1 | Almeria | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad II vs Almeria
- 29 March 2026Almeria 5–1 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 29 August 2025Real Sociedad II 2–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 13 May 2022Real Sociedad II 0–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 21 October 2021Almeria 3–1 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad II and Almeria
Real Sociedad II
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Almeria won 4–2 at Real Sociedad II. The model had made a win for Almeria its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Brian Cipenga 23' for Almeria, Miguel De La Fuente 38' for Almeria, Sergio Arribas Calvo (penalty) 54' for Almeria, Lander Astiazarán 58' for Real Sociedad II, Arkaitz Mariezkurrena 90+5' for Real Sociedad II, Inaki Ruperez (own goal) 90+6' for Almeria. On expected goals it finished 1.63–1.91.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Real Sociedad II a 16.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.7% after a win, 16.3% after a draw, 19.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.0%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
For Almeria the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 63.9% going in: 68.0% after a win, 61.7% after a draw, 60.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.0%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Real Sociedad II v Almeria has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 31% / 25% / 44%: the biggest move is Almeria's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Real Sociedad II win31%▼ −4
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Almeria win44%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.