Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Espanyol 0-0 Deportivo La Coruna.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Espanyol, 30% draw, 30% Deportivo La Coruna — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Espanyol at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ángel FortuñoG
- 23O. El HilaliD
- 6L. CabreraD
- 3Q. HartmanD
- 24T. DolanM
- 8Edu ExpósitoM
- 10Pol LozanoM
- 36Alejandro Santiago VargasM
- 22Álex CalatravaM
- 11Pere MillaF
- 9Roberto FernándezF
- 13M. DmitrovićG
- 26Rafel BauzàM
- 16V. DrkušićD
- 18Marcos FernándezF
- 2GorosabelD
- 28Javier HernandezM
- 32J. A. LopezD
- 14Unai NúñezD
- 7Javi PuadoF
- 13Leo RománG
- 2Adrià AltiD
- 20J. GiménezD
- 15Miguel LoureiroD
- 12G. QuagliataD
- 11David MellaM
- 16L. AmatucciM
- 21Mario SorianoM
- 10PekeM
- 19Luismi CruzF
- 32B. NsongoF
- 24Adama TraoréF
- 33Kevin SánchezF
- 14Riki RodríguezM
- 4L. NoubiD
- 23Ximo NavarroD
- 18Jonathan Asp JensenM
- 25Álvaro FernándezG
- 17AngeliñoD
- 6Marc CasadóM
Form going into Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna
Espanyol
La Liga
- W1-0away to Villarreal30 October 2026
- L1-2away to Racing Santander24 October 2026
- L0-1Atletico Madrid17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Malaga9 October 2026
Deportivo La Coruna
La Liga
- W2-1Osasuna2 November 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Madrid24 October 2026
- D1-1Levante16 October 2026
- L2-3away to Real Sociedad11 October 2026
What these results say
- Espanyol failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Espanyol scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Espanyol conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna
- 23 February 2018Deportivo La Coruna 0–0 EspanyolLa Liga
- 24 September 2017Espanyol 4–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 7 May 2017Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 EspanyolLa Liga
- 6 January 2017Espanyol 1–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 20 February 2016Espanyol 1–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 27 September 2015Deportivo La Coruna 3–0 EspanyolLa Liga
Leading scorers: Espanyol and Deportivo La Coruna
Espanyol
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Fernández60
Deportivo La Coruna
GoalsAssists
- P. Aubameyang52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Espanyol and Deportivo La Coruna drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Espanyol at 40% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.72–0.32.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Espanyol a 12.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.5% after a win, 14.2% after a draw, 16.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 14.2%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.
For Deportivo La Coruna the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 7.9% going in: 4.7% after a win, 7.7% after a draw, 9.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 7.7%.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.