Leganes vs Albacete Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Leganes 1-3 Albacete.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Leganes, 30% draw, 32% Albacete — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Leganes at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leganes vs Albacete
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13L. ZidaneG
- 7Rubén PeñaD
- 3Javi MonteroD
- 2MarvelD
- 15Enric FranquesaD
- 22Álex SancrisM
- 20Miguel AtienzaM
- 10Z. BuurmeesterM
- 17Ismaël GharbiM
- 9Álex MillánF
- 21Álvaro MorataF
- 24A. DiawaraM
- 32Suleiman El Haddadi MohamedF
- 1Raúl FernándezG
- 11Naim GarcíaF
- 38Álex GonzálezG
- 39Jorge MartínezF
- 19P. SokoF
- 40Diego Pérez MorenoD
- 14Dani RodríguezM
- 13Diego MariñoG
- 24VallejoD
- 22Lluís LópezD
- 21Carlos NevaD
- 2Lorenzo AguadoM
- 6Antonio PachecoM
- 18Sergio OrtuM
- 14San BartoloméM
- 11Víctor ValverdeM
- 19Alex RubioF
- 12Higinio MarínF
- 23Pepe SánchezD
- 9Mario SoberónF
- 44Antonio DavidM
- 4Agus MedinaM
- 1Carlos MarínG
- 10RóberF
- 39F. GarciaF
- 40Jota DomingoD
- 27D. BernabeuD
Form going into Leganes vs Albacete
Leganes
Segunda División
- L3-4away to Valladolid2 November 2026
- D1-1Mallorca24 October 2026
- L0-1Cordoba16 October 2026
Albacete
Segunda División
- W2-1Sabadell31 October 2026
- W2-0Eldense25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting Gijon17 October 2026
- L0-5away to Valladolid12 October 2026
What these results say
- Albacete scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Albacete conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Albacete had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Leganes | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 | Albacete | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leganes vs Albacete
- 17 July 2026Leganes 0–0 AlbaceteFriendlies Clubs
- 11 April 2026Leganes 2–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 4 January 2026Albacete 1–3 LeganesSegunda División
- 4 December 2025Leganes 1–2 AlbaceteCopa del Rey
- 12 May 2024Albacete 1–0 LeganesSegunda División
- 27 August 2023Leganes 2–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
The result against the call
Albacete won 3–1 at Leganes. The model had leaned towards a win for Leganes at 38% and given a win for Albacete 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Antonio Pacheco Ruiz 20' for Albacete, Álex Rubio Roldán 45+3' for Albacete, Higinio Marín (penalty) 59' for Albacete, Álvaro Morata 68' for Leganes. Sent off: (Leganes) 99'. On expected goals it finished 2.42–2.17.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Leganes a 51.2% chance to finish in the bottom four: 45.1% after a win, 52.8% after a draw, 57.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.5%, 6.3 points higher than before the match.
For Albacete the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 61.8% going in: 53.2% after a win, 62.7% after a draw, 67.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.2%, 8.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Leganes v Albacete has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 39% / 31% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 30% / 32%: the biggest move is Albacete's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Leganes win38%▼ −1
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Albacete win32%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.