6 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Sevilla vs Alaves La Liga prediction & result

Sevilla
Referee: Luis Bestard Servera
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Sevilla 0-0 Alaves.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Sevilla, 26% draw, 28% Alaves — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sevilla at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sevilla5%Draw92%Alaves3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

30'
Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras
⚽Rubén Vargas (pen)
32'
Arouna Sangante
47'
🔁Rubén Vargasout: Chidera Ejuke
59'
60'
🔁Angel Pérez Hidalgoout: Abderrahmane Rebbach
60'
🔁Ander Guevaraout: Carlos Protesoni
63'
Toni Martínez
64'
Nicolas Valentini
🔁Isaac Romeroout: Robbie Ure
74'
🔁Arouna Sanganteout: Andrés Castrín
74'
74'
🔁Toni Martínezout: Mariano Díaz
85'
🔁Lucas Boyéout: Aitor Mañas
🔁Felix Correiaout: Alfonso González Martínez
85'
85'
🔁Youssef Enriquezout: Jonny Otto

Match stats — Sevilla vs Alaves

60%Possession40%
13Shots9
3On target2
5Corners4
1.66xG0.6

Goals against chances

Sevilla0 from 1.66 xGless than the chances were worth
Alaves0 from 0.60 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sevilla 4-2-3-1
  • 1O. VlachodimosG
  • 2Juan IglesiasD
  • 12A. SanganteD
  • 4Kike SalasD
  • 17G. SuazoD
  • 24Y. FofanaM
  • 6L. AgouméM
  • 11R. VargasM
  • 16IsaacM
  • 20Félix CorreiaM
  • 19L. StassinF
Substitutes
  • 3Julio Díaz del RomoD
  • 21C. EjukeF
  • 7Alfon GonzálezF
  • 13Fran GonzálezG
  • 27N. GuillenM
  • 18Jon GuridiM
  • 8G. KochorashviliM
  • 5Andrés CastrínD
  • 34Iker Ortín MuñozD
Coach: Luis García
Alaves 3-5-2
  • 1SiveraG
  • 14N. TenagliaD
  • 16V. KoskiD
  • 2N. ValentiniD
  • 7Angel PérezM
  • 6GuevaraM
  • 8Antonio BlancoM
  • 19Pablo IbáñezM
  • 3YusiM
  • 11Toni MartínezF
  • 15L. BoyéF
Substitutes
  • 23C. BenavídezM
  • 17JonnyD
  • 24Selu DialloM
  • 9M. DíazF
  • 20Aitor MañasF
  • 12Hugo NovoaF
  • 27X. OlaizD
  • 21A. RebbachF
  • 13A. GiménezG
Coach: Quique Sánchez Flores

Form going into Sevilla vs Alaves

Sevilla

La Liga

  • L1-3away to Getafe1 November 2026
  • W2-0Osasuna26 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Real Madrid18 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Levante12 October 2026

Alaves

La Liga

  • L1-6away to Barcelona31 October 2026
  • D1-1Malaga23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Celta Vigo18 October 2026
  • L1-2Atletico Madrid10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sevilla scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sevilla failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sevilla conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Alaves did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Alaves scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Alaves conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Sevilla125341719-218
12Alaves123451517-213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sevilla vs Alaves

  • 14 February 2026Sevilla 1–1 AlavesLa Liga
  • 17 December 2025Alaves 1–0 SevillaCopa del Rey
  • 20 September 2025Alaves 1–2 SevillaLa Liga
  • 20 April 2025Sevilla 1–1 AlavesLa Liga
  • 20 September 2024Alaves 2–1 SevillaLa Liga
  • 12 January 2024Sevilla 2–3 AlavesLa Liga

The full Sevilla vs Alaves record →

Leading scorers: Sevilla and Alaves

Sevilla

No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Alaves

GoalsAssists

  • L. Boyé50
  • M. Díaz44

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sevilla and Alaves drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sevilla at 46% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.66–0.60.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Alaves a 13.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.7% after a win, 13.9% after a draw, 15.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 13.9%.

Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sevilla v Alaves has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is Sevilla's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Sevilla win46%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Alaves win28%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.