Malaga vs Racing Santander La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Malaga 1-2 Racing Santander.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Malaga, 26% draw, 31% Racing Santander — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Malaga at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Malaga vs Racing Santander
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Alfonso HerreroG
- 31RafitaD
- 20Fernando CaleroD
- 5Álex PastorD
- 4Einar GalileaD
- 39Adam Aznou Ben CheikhD
- 8Carlos DotorM
- 6Ramón EnríquezM
- 22Dani LorenzoM
- 21Adrián Niño HerediaF
- 9ChupeF
- 32J. FernandezF
- 14Rafa RodríguezM
- 12José SalinasD
- 15Ángel RecioD
- 25Juan BerrocalD
- 17Eneko JauregiF
- 2J. CajusteM
- 10David LarrubiaF
- 13Carlos LópezG
- 13Julen AgirrezabalaG
- 5Pablo RamónD
- 22Pedro FelipeD
- 24J. BelocianD
- 17Jorge SalinasD
- 23Iván MartínM
- 18M. PratiM
- 19Iker LuqueM
- 20Sergio CanalesM
- 10Iñigo VicenteM
- 21M. ZabiriF
- 9Juan Carlos AranaF
- 1S. ErikssonG
- 15Pablo GarcíaF
- 16Facundo GonzálezD
- 14M. GueyeM
- 7G. GuliashviliF
- 4Manu HernandoD
- 3Aarón MartínD
- 38H. PerezF
Form going into Malaga vs Racing Santander
Malaga
La Liga
- L1-2away to Real Betis31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Alaves23 October 2026
- L2-5Real Sociedad18 October 2026
- D1-1Espanyol9 October 2026
Racing Santander
La Liga
- L0-3Real Madrid1 November 2026
- W2-1Espanyol24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Osasuna18 October 2026
- D2-2Valencia11 October 2026
What these results say
- Malaga did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Malaga scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Malaga conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Racing Santander conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Racing Santander failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Racing Santander had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Malaga vs Racing Santander
- 24 May 2026Malaga 1–1 Racing SantanderSegunda División
- 5 October 2025Racing Santander 3–0 MalagaSegunda División
- 1 February 2025Racing Santander 2–1 MalagaSegunda División
- 23 November 2024Malaga 0–0 Racing SantanderSegunda División
- 5 March 2023Malaga 0–1 Racing SantanderSegunda División
- 1 October 2022Racing Santander 0–0 MalagaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Malaga and Racing Santander
Malaga
GoalsAssists
- Adrián Niño Heredia51
Racing Santander
GoalsAssists
- M. Zabiri90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Racing Santander won 2–1 at Malaga. The model had leaned towards a win for Malaga at 43% and given a win for Racing Santander 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Carlos Dotor 28' for Malaga, Iker Luque 50' for Racing Santander, Yassir Zabiri 60' for Racing Santander. Sent off: Adam Aznou (Malaga) 64'. On expected goals it finished 2.08–2.44.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Malaga a 76.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 71.7% after a win, 79.0% after a draw, 83.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 83.1%, 6.5 points higher than before the match.
For Racing Santander the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 56.1% going in: 46.8% after a win, 56.0% after a draw, 62.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 46.8%, 9.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.