Osasuna vs Athletic Club La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Osasuna 1-1 Athletic Club.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Osasuna, 28% draw, 41% Athletic Club — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Athletic Club at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Osasuna vs Athletic Club
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 19V. RosierD
- 22F. BoyomoD
- 24CatenaD
- 23Abel BretonesD
- 7MoncayolaM
- 6Lucas TorróM
- 16Moi GómezM
- 14Rubén GarcíaF
- 17A. BudimirF
- 18Raul MoroF
- 11Kike BarjaF
- 27Íñigo ArguibideD
- 21Jonathan DubasinF
- 26Mauro EchegoyenM
- 9Raúl GarcíaF
- 1Sergio HerreraG
- 8Iker MuñozM
- 29Asier OsambelaM
- 31Rafa FernándezG
- 1Unai SimónG
- 15Hugo RincónD
- 3Dani VivianD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 17YuriD
- 28Peio CanalesM
- 24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
- 7Álex BerenguerM
- 23Robert NavarroM
- 10Nico WilliamsM
- 9I. WilliamsF
- 12Jesús AresoD
- 34Jesús Vizcay HurtadoF
- 8Oihan SancetM
- 16Ruíz de GalarretaM
- 20Alejandro RegoM
- 6Beñat PradosM
- 13Álex PadillaG
- 31J. Louis-JeanD
- 18Mikel JauregizarM
Form going into Osasuna vs Athletic Club
Osasuna
La Liga
- L1-2away to Deportivo La Coruna2 November 2026
- L0-2away to Sevilla26 October 2026
- W2-0Racing Santander18 October 2026
- L2-5away to Real Betis11 October 2026
Athletic Club
La Liga
- W2-1Real Sociedad1 November 2026
- W4-0Getafe25 October 2026
- L1-3away to Levante21 October 2026
- D0-0away to Valencia17 October 2026
What these results say
- Osasuna failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Osasuna scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Osasuna conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Athletic Club scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Athletic Club had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Osasuna vs Athletic Club
- 21 April 2026Athletic Club 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 3 January 2026Osasuna 1–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 30 March 2025Athletic Club 0–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 16 January 2025Athletic Club 2–3 OsasunaCopa del Rey
- 21 December 2024Osasuna 1–2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 3 August 2024Athletic Club 2–1 OsasunaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Osasuna and Athletic Club
Osasuna
GoalsAssists
- A. Budimir80
Athletic Club
GoalsAssists
- Álex Berenguer44
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Osasuna and Athletic Club drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Athletic Club at 41% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Nico Williams 84' for Athletic Club, Alejandro Catena 90' for Osasuna. On expected goals it finished 0.72–2.32.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Osasuna a 43.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 34.8% after a win, 43.7% after a draw, 48.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 43.7%.
For Athletic Club the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.9% going in: 8.5% after a win, 6.0% after a draw, 4.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 6.0%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Osasuna v Athletic Club has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 31% / 28% / 41%: the biggest move is Athletic Club's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Osasuna win31%▼ −5
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Athletic Club win41%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.