Valencia vs Real Madrid La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Valencia 0-3 Real Madrid.
Before kick-off the model made it 16% Valencia, 25% draw, 59% Real Madrid — fair odds of 6.25, 4.00 and 1.69.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Real Madrid at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valencia vs Real Madrid
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 24Pablo MaffeoD
- 18PepeluD
- 5César TárregaD
- 12J. de HaasD
- 14José GayàD
- 8Javi GuerraM
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 33Aaron MayolM
- 6U. SadiqF
- 7A. DanjumaF
- 37Aimar BlázquezF
- 4M. DiakhabyD
- 15A. DiengM
- 9Hugo DuroF
- 10H. ElliottM
- 22Arnau MartínezD
- 19Dani RabaF
- 11Luis RiojaF
- 23F. UgrinicM
- 1T. CourtoisG
- 8F. ValverdeD
- 16I. KonatéD
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 17Marc CucurellaD
- 20Bernardo SilvaM
- 14A. TchouaméniM
- 15A. GülerM
- 5J. BellinghamM
- 25Y. DiomandeM
- 10Kylian MbappéF
- 27Thiago PitarchM
- 26Sergio MestreG
- 13A. LuninG
- 19Carlos EspíF
- 9EndrickF
- 3Éder MilitãoD
- 24D. DumfriesD
- 21Brahim DíazM
- 18Álvaro FernándezD
Form going into Valencia vs Real Madrid
Valencia
La Liga
- W1-0away to Elche1 November 2026
- L1-2Villarreal24 October 2026
- D0-0Athletic Club17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Racing Santander11 October 2026
Real Madrid
La Liga
- W3-0away to Racing Santander1 November 2026
- W2-1away to Barcelona25 October 2026
- W4-1Sevilla18 October 2026
- W1-0Villarreal10 October 2026
What these results say
- Valencia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Valencia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Real Madrid won every one of these 4 matches.
- Real Madrid scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Real Madrid had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valencia vs Real Madrid
- 8 February 2026Valencia 0–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 1 November 2025Real Madrid 4–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- 5 April 2025Real Madrid 1–2 ValenciaLa Liga
- 3 January 2025Valencia 1–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 2 March 2024Valencia 2–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 11 November 2023Real Madrid 5–1 ValenciaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Valencia and Real Madrid
Valencia
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Real Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Kylian Mbappé132
- J. Bellingham43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Madrid won 3–0 at Valencia. The model had made a win for Real Madrid its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Federico Valverde 28' for Real Madrid, Arda Güler 36' for Real Madrid, Kylian Mbappé 75' for Real Madrid. Sent off: José Gayà (Valencia) 79'. On expected goals it finished 0.26–2.39.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Valencia a 23.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 16.3% after a win, 22.2% after a draw, 24.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.9%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
For Real Madrid the question was the chance to win the league, 37.8% going in: 40.3% after a win, 33.8% after a draw, 31.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.3%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Valencia v Real Madrid has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 18% / 25% / 57% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 16% / 25% / 59%: the biggest move is Valencia's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Valencia win16%▼ −2
- Draw25%=
- Real Madrid win59%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.