6 September 2026, 14:15 UTC

Oviedo vs Burgos Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Oviedo 0-0 Burgos.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Oviedo, 27% draw, 23% Burgos — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Oviedo at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Oviedo4%Draw92%Burgos4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Aritz Aldasoro
25'
Aritz Aldasoro
26'
Aarón Escandell
29'
Alberto Reina
32'
🔁J. Gonzalezout: E. Perez
58'
58'
🔁A. Foresout: U. Vencedor
58'
🔁P. Galdamesout: J. Karrikaburu
67'
Jon Karrikaburu
69'
Grego Sierra
🔁D. Villahermosaout: Y. Lachhab
72'
🔁A. Isfanout: V. Mingo
72'
72'
🔁J. Grageraout: K. Appin
72'
🔁C. Sanchezout: V. Mollejo
🔁P. Saenzout: D. Jimenez
75'
🔁A. Ahmedout: E. Pedrola
75'
81'
🔁G. Sierraout: S. del Cerro
85'
Alberto Dadie
Estanis Pedrola
87'
90'
Víctor Mollejo

Match stats — Oviedo vs Burgos

40%Possession60%
21Shots16
2On target2
9Corners6
1.94xG1.81

Goals against chances

Oviedo0 from 1.94 xGless than the chances were worth
Burgos0 from 1.81 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Oviedo 4-2-3-1
  • 13A. EscandellG
  • 2A. AhmedD
  • 12D. CalvoD
  • 23C. DominguezD
  • 15S. RodriguezD
  • 10A. ReinaM
  • 16A. AldasoroM
  • 20P. SaenzM
  • 6D. VillahermosaM
  • 11J. GonzalezM
  • 24A. IsfanF
Substitutes
  • 1M. NarvaezG
  • 21D. JimenezD
  • 3J. CruzD
  • 30Marco EstebanD
  • 5Y. LachhabM
  • 8M. Goti LopezM
  • 28D. MenendezM
  • 32E. PerezM
  • 18V. MingoF
Coach: Julian Calero
Burgos 4-2-3-1
  • 13A. CanteroG
  • 23A. Dadie IzagirreD
  • 6S. GonzalezD
  • 8G. SierraD
  • 3I. VilarrasaD
  • 20J. GrageraM
  • 4P. GaldamesM
  • 14D. Gonzalez BallesterosM
  • 16C. SanchezM
  • 19J. LlabresM
  • 9A. ForesF
Substitutes
  • 1B. IribarneG
  • 22B. MartinezD
  • 36I. MartinezD
  • 12U. VencedorM
  • 18S. del CerroM
  • 10K. AppinM
  • 5M. ExpositoM
  • 17M. CanteroM
  • 11V. MollejoF
Coach: Sergio Francisco

Form going into Oviedo vs Burgos

Oviedo

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Albacete29 August 2026
  • L0-1Leganes22 August 2026
  • D0-0Granada CF15 August 2026

Burgos

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Real Sociedad II31 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Sporting Gijon23 August 2026
  • W3-2Cordoba16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Oviedo146352018+221
4Burgos147342017+324

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Oviedo vs Burgos

  • 22 February 2025Burgos 1–2 OviedoSegunda División
  • 3 November 2024Oviedo 3–1 BurgosSegunda División
  • 17 February 2024Oviedo 5–0 BurgosSegunda División
  • 26 August 2023Burgos 1–0 OviedoSegunda División
  • 12 February 2023Oviedo 0–1 BurgosSegunda División
  • 10 September 2022Burgos 0–0 OviedoSegunda División

Leading scorers: Oviedo and Burgos

Oviedo

GoalsAssists

  • Carlos Domínguez50

Burgos

GoalsAssists

  • Álex Forés41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Oviedo and Burgos drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Oviedo at 50% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. Sent off: Aritz Aldasoro (Oviedo) 26'. On expected goals it finished 1.94–1.81.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.