17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Estac Troyes vs Lens Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
Referee: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Estac Troyes 1-3 Lens.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Estac Troyes, 23% draw, 58% Lens — fair odds of 5.26, 4.35 and 1.72.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lens at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽Adrien Monfray (OG)
⚽Timothee Nkada
26'
45+2'
⚽Odsonne Édouardassist: Florian Thauvin
55'
⚽Ruben Aguilarassist: Florian Thauvin
60'
🔁Jean-Clair Todiboout: Samson Baidoo
🔁Timothee Nkadaout: Kandet Diawara
60'
🔁Paolo Gozzi Iweruout: Noah Donkor
64'
67'
🔁Florian Thauvinout: Mezian Soares Mesloub
67'
🔁Odsonne Édouardout: Franjo Ivanovic
67'
🔁Yassine Titraouiout: Amadou Haidara
72'
🔁Ruben Aguilarout: Saud Abdulhamid
Junior Diaz
76'
Renaud Ripart
76'
77'
Samson Baidoo
🔁Mouhamed Diopout: Jérémy Le Douaron
79'
🔁Lucas Maronnierout: Iron Gomis
79'
82'
Amadou Haidara

Match stats — Estac Troyes vs Lens

41%Possession59%
12Shots13
5On target3
6Corners4
1.27xG1.45

Goals against chances

Estac Troyes1 from 1.27 xGabout what the chances were worth
Lens3 from 1.45 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Estac Troyes 4-2-3-1
  • 33P. BeachG
  • 2L. MaronnierD
  • 6A. MonfrayD
  • 4M. DiazD
  • 5P. GozziD
  • 8M. DiopM
  • 29D. KarimM
  • 10M. IfnaouiM
  • 17A. MilleM
  • 23T. NkadaM
  • 20R. RipartF
Substitutes
  • 40H. KonatéG
  • 11I. GomisM
  • 31Noah DonkorD
  • 26A. PhliponeauM
  • 9J. Le DouaronF
  • 22H. PicardM
  • 34Lassana SimakhaD
  • 7K. DiawaraF
  • 37C. BatolaF
Coach: S. Dumont
Lens 3-4-2-1
  • 40R. RisserG
  • 32K. AntonioD
  • 25I. GaniouD
  • 20J. TodiboD
  • 2R. AguilarM
  • 8Y. TitraouiM
  • 5A. BulatovićM
  • 22M. SkóraśM
  • 10F. ThauvinM
  • 7F. SotocaM
  • 11O. ÉdouardF
Substitutes
  • 38M. SoaresM
  • 23Saud AbdulhamidD
  • 6S. BaidooD
  • 27M. CuisanceM
  • 16M. GorgelinG
  • 21A. HaidaraM
  • 9T. HazardM
  • 29F. IvanovićF
  • 28J. KadileF
Coach: Yannick Cahuzac

Form going into Estac Troyes vs Lens

Estac Troyes

Ligue 1

  • L0-2Marseille11 October 2026

Lens

Ligue 1

  • W2-1Lyon9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Estac Troyes10226717-108
11Lens104151715+213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Lens

  • 4 February 2026Estac Troyes 2–4 LensCoupe de France
  • 28 January 2023Estac Troyes 1–1 LensLigue 1
  • 9 September 2022Lens 1–0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
  • 14 May 2022Estac Troyes 1–3 LensLigue 1
  • 5 November 2021Lens 4–0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
  • 4 February 2020Lens 1–0 Estac TroyesLigue 2

The full Estac Troyes vs Lens record →

Leading scorers: Estac Troyes and Lens

Estac Troyes

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Lens

GoalsAssists

  • F. Thauvin57

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lens won 3–1 at Estac Troyes. The model had made a win for Lens its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Adrien Monfray (own goal) 13' for Lens, Timothee Nkada 26' for Estac Troyes, Odsonne Édouard 45+2' for Lens, Ruben Aguilar 55' for Lens. On expected goals it finished 1.27–1.45.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Estac Troyes a 80.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 73.3% after a win, 79.5% after a draw, 82.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 82.7%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

For Lens the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 22.4% going in: 24.7% after a win, 19.2% after a draw, 15.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.7%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Estac Troyes v Lens has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 25% / 26% / 49% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 19% / 23% / 58%: the biggest move is Lens's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Estac Troyes win19%▼ −6
  2. Draw23%▼ −3
  3. Lens win58%▲ +9

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.