17 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego
Referee: Piotr Lasyk
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Legia Warszawa.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Cracovia Krakow, 29% draw, 44% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Legia Warszawa at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cracovia Krakow3%Draw93%Legia Warszawa4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
⚽Michal Sevcikassist: Paweł Wszołek
39'
Paweł Wszołek
Vincent Burlet
40'
⚽Lasse Selvåg Nordåsassist: Gustav Henriksson
44'
45'
🔁Paweł Wszołekout: Arkadiusz Reca
65'
🔁Michal Sevcikout: Bogdan V'Yunnik
🔁Mateusz Klichout: Mohamed Berte
74'
82'
🔁Lukasz Zjawinskiout: Jan Kuchta
82'
🔁Robert Dezielout: Zoran Arsenić
🔁Martin Minchevout: Kahveh Zahiroleslam
85'
88'
🔁Bartosz Kapustkaout: Damian Szymański

Match stats — Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa

52%Possession48%
14Shots15
3On target2
5Corners3
0.88xG0.66

Goals against chances

Cracovia Krakow1 from 0.88 xGabout what the chances were worth
Legia Warszawa1 from 0.66 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cracovia Krakow 4-2-3-1
  • 13S. MadejskiG
  • 25O. KakabadzeD
  • 4G. HenrikssonD
  • 61B. TraoréD
  • 28V. BurletD
  • 20K. KnapM
  • 6Amir Al AmmariM
  • 14A. HasićM
  • 43M. KlichM
  • 17M. MinchevM
  • 11L. NordåsF
Substitutes
  • 39M. PerkovićD
  • 79D. PiłaD
  • 5B. SelanM
  • 18Kahveh ZahiroleslamF
  • 90M. BerteF
  • 22D. BaumgartnerD
  • 91A. BobekG
  • 77J. ChrapustaG
  • 29W. DejM
Coach: B. Grzelak
Legia Warszawa 3-4-3
  • 89O. HindrichG
  • 91K. PiątkowskiD
  • 8R. AugustyniakD
  • 5Robert DezielD
  • 22P. WszołekM
  • 53W. UrbańskiM
  • 67B. KapustkaM
  • 11K. ChodynaM
  • 23M. ŠevčíkF
  • 79Ł. ZjawińskiF
  • 9R. AdamskiF
Substitutes
  • 6Henrique ArreiolM
  • 24Z. ArsenićD
  • 1I. BrkićG
  • 14A. ČolakF
  • 2S. FukudaD
  • 7J. KuchtaF
  • 13A. RecaD
  • 17M. SzczepaniakM
  • 4D. SzymańskiM
Coach: M. Papszun

Form going into Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa

Cracovia Krakow

Ekstraklasa

  • W3-1Zaglebie Lubin10 October 2026

Legia Warszawa

Ekstraklasa

  • W2-0Wisla Krakow11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Cracovia Krakow143381623-712
3Legia Warszawa146622515+1024

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa

  • 8 March 2026Legia Warszawa 1–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 31 August 2025Cracovia Krakow 2–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 18 May 2025Cracovia Krakow 3–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 23 November 2024Legia Warszawa 3–2 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 20 December 2023Cracovia Krakow 2–0 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 17 December 2023Legia Warszawa 2–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa

Cracovia Krakow

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hasić72

Legia Warszawa

No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Legia Warszawa at 44% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Michal Sevcik 26' for Legia Warszawa, Lasse Selvåg Nordås 44' for Cracovia Krakow. On expected goals it finished 0.88–0.66.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cracovia Krakow a 22.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 14.8% after a win, 21.3% after a draw, 25.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 21.3%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.

For Legia Warszawa the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 75.8% going in: 80.6% after a win, 74.6% after a draw, 69.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 74.6%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cracovia Krakow v Legia Warszawa has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 28% / 30% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 27% / 29% / 44%: the biggest move is Legia Warszawa's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Cracovia Krakow win27%▼ −1
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Legia Warszawa win44%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.