17 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Katowice
Referee: Szymon Marciniak
Full time0 – 1

Final score: GKS Katowice 0-1 Pogon Szczecin.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% GKS Katowice, 27% draw, 30% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

GKS Katowice at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

GKS Katowice0%Draw5%Pogon Szczecin95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

51'
⚽Jordi Sánchezassist: Attila Szalai
Lukas Klemenz
65'
🔁Mateusz·Kowalczykout: Bartosz Wolski
68'
69'
Jan Bieganski
72'
🔁Darko Churlinovout: Kamil Grosicki
🔁Marcin Wasielewskiout: Erik Jirka
73'
🔁Marcel Wedrychowskiout: Mateusz Wdowiak
73'
82'
🔁Maciej Wojciechowskiout: Lukas Willen
82'
🔁Jan Bieganskiout: Kellyn Acosta
83'
🔁Alessandro Riccioout: Isaiah·Eichie
🔁Alan Czerwińskiout: Adam Zreľák
84'
87'
🔁Jordi Sánchezout: Natan Lawa

Match stats — GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin

64%Possession36%
19Shots14
4On target5
6Corners3
1xG2.09

Goals against chances

GKS Katowice0 from 1.00 xGless than the chances were worth
Pogon Szczecin1 from 2.09 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

GKS Katowice 3-4-3
  • 87G. KobylakG
  • 30A. CzerwińskiD
  • 6L. KlemenzD
  • 55Pau RestaD
  • 23M. WasielewskiM
  • 77M. KowalczykM
  • 19K. ŁukasiakM
  • 8Borja GalánM
  • 10M. WędrychowskiF
  • 17I. ShkurinF
  • 27B. NowakF
Substitutes
  • 31S. BartlewiczM
  • 4A. JędrychD
  • 97E. JirkaM
  • 1M. KikolskiG
  • 22S. MilewskiM
  • 14M. OlsenD
  • 7M. WdowiakM
  • 68B. WolskiM
  • 99A. ZreľákF
Coach: R. Górak
Pogon Szczecin 4-4-2
  • 77V. CojocaruG
  • 4A. RiccioD
  • 13D. KeramitsisD
  • 41A. SzalaiD
  • 23B. MendyD
  • 21D. ChurlinovM
  • 16P. DziczekM
  • 6J. BiegańskiM
  • 18P. MukairuM
  • 22Jordi SánchezF
  • 35M. WojciechowskiF
Substitutes
  • 29L. WillenD
  • 75A. OssowskiD
  • 17J. NsameF
  • 9R. MolnárF
  • 10F. ČuićF
  • 47N. LawaM
  • 11K. GrosickiM
  • 98M. DabrowskiG
  • 31Nikolaos Nestoras BotisG
Coach: Óscar García

Form going into GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin

GKS Katowice

Ekstraklasa

  • W2-1Wieczysta Kraków12 October 2026

Pogon Szczecin

Ekstraklasa

  • W2-0Korona Kielce11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8GKS Katowice147072520+521
4Pogon Szczecin137332015+524

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin

  • 23 May 2026Pogon Szczecin 1–1 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 29 November 2025GKS Katowice 2–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
  • 6 April 2025Pogon Szczecin 4–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 27 September 2024GKS Katowice 3–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: GKS Katowice and Pogon Szczecin

GKS Katowice

GoalsAssists

  • I. Shkurin82
  • B. Nowak78

Pogon Szczecin

GoalsAssists

  • Jordi Sánchez91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Pogon Szczecin won 1–0 at GKS Katowice. The model had leaned towards a win for GKS Katowice at 43% and given a win for Pogon Szczecin 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Jordi Sánchez 51' for Pogon Szczecin. On expected goals it finished 1.00–2.09.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave GKS Katowice a 51.3% chance to finish in the top four: 56.9% after a win, 48.1% after a draw, 43.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.9%, 7.4 points lower than before the match.

For Pogon Szczecin the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 39.8% going in: 49.1% after a win, 39.3% after a draw, 34.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.1%, 9.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on GKS Katowice v Pogon Szczecin has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 43% / 27% / 30%: the biggest move is GKS Katowice's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. GKS Katowice win43%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Pogon Szczecin win30%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.