17 October 2026, 15:15 UTC

Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg
Referee: Willy Delajod, France
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Strasbourg 1-3 Paris Saint Germain.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Strasbourg, 22% draw, 54% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 4.17, 4.55 and 1.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Paris Saint Germain at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Strasbourg0%Draw4%Paris Saint Germain96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Giovanni Reynaassist: Gessime Yassine
17'
53'
🔁Lucas Digneout: Nuno Mendes
54'
🔁Dro Fernándezout: Désiré Doue
54'
🔁Lucas Beraldoout: Vitinha
🔁Fábio Baldéout: Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
60'
63'
🔁João Nevesout: Achraf Hakimi
63'
🔁Khvicha Kvaratskheliaout: Ousmane Dembélé
70'
•Désiré Doue
72'
⚽Ousmane Dembélé (pen)
🔁Pape Demba Diopout: Samir El-Mourabet
75'
Conrad Harder
76'
77'
⚽Ilya Zabarnyiassist: Ousmane Dembélé
Dario Essugo
78'
🔁Gessime Yassineout: Yaya Dieme
83'
🔁Conrad Harderout: Jacobo Ortega
83'
85'
⚽Ousmane Dembélé
90+3'
⚽Désiré Doueassist: Ferrán Torres

Match stats — Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain

27%Possession73%
16Shots18
8On target7
3Corners6
1.05xG2.68

Goals against chances

Strasbourg1 from 1.05 xGabout what the chances were worth
Paris Saint Germain3 from 2.68 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Strasbourg 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. JörgensenG
  • 16G. AntwiD
  • 4J. MitchellD
  • 31Abdoul Karim CoulibalyD
  • 36OsoD
  • 14Dário EssugoM
  • 21P. DiopM
  • 80Gessime YassineM
  • 10G. ReynaM
  • 19Fabio Amadu Uri BaldéM
  • 40C. HarderF
Substitutes
  • 23Diogo SousaM
  • 12M. PiekutowskiG
  • 30J. OrtegaF
  • 28Tyrese NoubissieM
  • 24L. HøgsbergD
  • 29S. El MourabetM
  • 35Yaya DiemeF
  • 43Y. BeckerD
  • 7S. Amo-AmeyawF
Coach: Hugo Oliveira
Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
  • 39M. SafonovG
  • 33W. Zaïre-EmeryD
  • 6I. ZabarnyiD
  • 21L. HernándezD
  • 12L. DigneD
  • 87João NevesM
  • 27Pedro FernándezM
  • 4BeraldoM
  • 11M. AklioucheF
  • 9Ferran TorresF
  • 7K. KvaratskheliaF
Substitutes
  • 17VitinhaM
  • 8Fabián RuizM
  • 51W. PachoD
  • 25Nuno MendesD
  • 2A. HakimiD
  • 22M. GodtsF
  • 14D. DouéF
  • 10O. DembéléF
  • 30L. ChevalierG
Coach: Luis Enrique

Form going into Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain

Strasbourg

Ligue 1

  • L1-2away to Nice11 October 2026

Paris Saint Germain

Ligue 1

  • W3-1Le Mans10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Strasbourg103161822-410
1Paris Saint Germain107212210+1223

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain

  • 1 February 2026Strasbourg 1–2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
  • 17 October 2025Paris Saint Germain 3–3 StrasbourgLigue 1
  • 3 May 2025Strasbourg 2–1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
  • 19 October 2024Paris Saint Germain 4–2 StrasbourgLigue 1
  • 2 February 2024Strasbourg 1–2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
  • 21 October 2023Paris Saint Germain 3–0 StrasbourgLigue 1

The full Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain record →

Leading scorers: Strasbourg and Paris Saint Germain

Strasbourg

GoalsAssists

  • Gessime Yassine43

Paris Saint Germain

GoalsAssists

  • Ferran Torres41
  • A. Hakimi32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Paris Saint Germain won 3–1 at Strasbourg. The model had made a win for Paris Saint Germain its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Giovanni Reyna 17' for Strasbourg, Ilya Zabarnyi 77' for Paris Saint Germain, Ousmane Dembélé 85' for Paris Saint Germain, Désiré Doue 90+3' for Paris Saint Germain. On expected goals it finished 1.05–2.68.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Strasbourg a 8.4% chance to finish in the top four: 11.3% after a win, 8.0% after a draw, 6.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.5%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.

For Paris Saint Germain the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 46.9% going in: 51.5% after a win, 42.9% after a draw, 38.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.5%, 4.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 28% / 25% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 24% / 22% / 54%: the biggest move is Paris Saint Germain's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Strasbourg win24%▼ −4
  2. Draw22%▼ −3
  3. Paris Saint Germain win54%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.