Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Lille, 24% draw, 19% Stade Brestois 29 — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Lille at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lille vs Stade Brestois 29
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12O. GillG
- 38M. GoffiD
- 3N. NgoyD
- 23T. NianzouD
- 15R. PerraudD
- 21B. AndréM
- 17N. MukauM
- 8E. MbappéM
- 10H. HaraldssonM
- 7D. BakwaM
- 9O. GiroudF
- 35S. DiaouneF
- 26I. CossierD
- 6N. BentalebM
- 14M. KjærgaardM
- 40Zadig LanssadeG
- 28G. PerrinF
- 24C. VerdonkD
- 33Matah YondjioF
- 19B. ÖnalF
- 1E. SelvikG
- 70K. LalaD
- 29L. TousartD
- 4G. LlorisD
- 2B. LockoD
- 13J. ChotardM
- 8H. MagnettiM
- 17Mama BaldéM
- 23K. DoumbiaM
- 9P. MboupM
- 19L. AjorqueF
- 21Ibrahim Yayiya KanteF
- 6M. DiambouM
- 18J. BourgaultD
- 33Enzo MonchatreF
- 20L. ZogbeD
- 30M. PatouilletG
- 7J. Nonge BoendeM
- 39D. N´GuessanF
Form going into Lille vs Stade Brestois 29
Lille
Ligue 1
- W1-0Le Havre10 October 2026
Stade Brestois 29
Ligue 1
- W5-1Angers10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lille | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 9 | Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lille vs Stade Brestois 29
- 14 February 2026Lille 1–1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 17 August 2025Stade Brestois 29 3–3 LilleLigue 1
- 10 May 2025Stade Brestois 29 2–0 LilleLigue 1
- 6 December 2024Lille 3–1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 17 March 2024Stade Brestois 29 1–1 LilleLigue 1
- 22 October 2023Lille 1–0 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
Leading scorers: Lille and Stade Brestois 29
Lille
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Stade Brestois 29
GoalsAssists
- L. Ajorque51
- K. Doumbia42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lille and Stade Brestois 29 drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lille at 57% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Mama Baldé 6' for Stade Brestois 29, Olivier Giroud (penalty) 64' for Lille. On expected goals it finished 2.25–0.84.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lille a 66.1% chance to finish in the top four: 69.7% after a win, 61.1% after a draw, 57.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 61.1%, 5 points lower than before the match.
For Stade Brestois 29 the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 11.0% going in: 6.0% after a win, 10.9% after a draw, 11.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 10.9%.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Lille v Stade Brestois 29 has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 53% / 27% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 57% / 24% / 19%: the biggest move is Lille's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Lille win57%▲ +4
- Draw24%▼ −3
- Stade Brestois 29 win19%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.