8 November 2026, 20:30 UTC

Rio Ave vs SC Braga Primeira Liga prediction & result

Vila do Conde
Referee: Claudio Pereira
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Rio Ave 0-1 SC Braga.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Rio Ave, 23% draw, 58% SC Braga — fair odds of 5.26, 4.35 and 1.72.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

SC Braga at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rio Ave0%Draw3%SC Braga97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Diogo Nascimento
53'
60'
🔁Bright Arrey Mbiout: Victor Gómez
60'
🔁Gabriel Martínez Aguileraout: Mario Dorgeles
64'
•Gustaf Lagerbielke
Diogo Bezerra
67'
67'
⚽Ricardo Horta (pen)
🔁Julien Lombotoout: Francisco Petrasso
69'
🔁João Tomé Baptistaout: Jose Carlos Teixeira Lopes Reis Goncalves
69'
🔁Sebastian Clemensenout: Brandon Aguilera
69'
🔁Jose Carlos Teixeira Lopes Reis Goncalvesout: Ryan Guilherme
77'
🔁Miguel Patricíoout: Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro
77'
79'
Fra Navarro
81'
🔁Jean-Baptiste Gorbyout: Vitor Carvalho
81'
🔁Ricardo Hortaout: Denis Huseinbasic
90+4'
🔁Fra Navarroout: Jovan Milosevic

Match stats — Rio Ave vs SC Braga

53%Possession47%
4Shots13
3On target2
0Corners8
0.26xG1.91

Goals against chances

Rio Ave0 from 0.26 xGabout what the chances were worth
SC Braga1 from 1.91 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
  • 99E. van der GouwG
  • 20João ToméD
  • 13J. LombotoD
  • 39Gustavo ManchaD
  • 17M. VrousaiD
  • 90Diogo NascimentoM
  • 54G. LiavasM
  • 80S. ClemmensenM
  • 79M. PatricioM
  • 7Diogo BezerraM
  • 11J. BlesaF
Substitutes
  • 30R. GalčíkF
  • 2Jose Carlos Teixeira Lopes Reis GoncalvesD
  • 32Vitor HugoG
  • 9Tamble MonteiroF
  • 77D. ŠpikićF
  • 21R. ŠilerF
  • 19M. SelloukiM
  • 10B. AguileraM
  • 3S. GarciaD
Coach: Vasco Seabra
SC Braga 3-4-3
  • 31Bernardo FontesG
  • 37A. BarišićD
  • 14G. LagerbielkeD
  • 26B. Arrey-MbiD
  • 7Diogo TravassosM
  • 8João MoutinhoM
  • 29J. GorbyM
  • 77Gabri MartínezM
  • 10Pau VictorF
  • 9Fran NavarroF
  • 21Ricardo HortaF
Substitutes
  • 6Vitor CarvalhoM
  • 44A. BajramiD
  • 12Tiago SáG
  • 50Diego RodriguesM
  • 17J. MiloševićF
  • 16Tomás MarquésM
  • 23D. HuseinbašićM
  • 2Víctor GómezD
  • 20M. DorgelesM
Coach: Franclim Carvalho

Form going into Rio Ave vs SC Braga

Rio Ave

Primeira Liga

  • L1-2away to Academico Viseu1 November 2026
  • L0-4Famalicao25 October 2026
  • W3-2Nacional11 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Alverca19 September 2026

SC Braga

Primeira Liga

  • W3-0Famalicao1 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Nacional25 October 2026
  • L1-2GIL Vicente19 October 2026
  • L1-3Sporting CP9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Rio Ave conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Rio Ave failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Rio Ave had three goals or more.
  • SC Braga failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • SC Braga scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • SC Braga conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Rio Ave11218924-157
8SC Braga115241311+217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rio Ave vs SC Braga

  • 8 February 2026SC Braga 3–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 31 August 2025Rio Ave 2–2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
  • 2 March 2025Rio Ave 2–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
  • 29 September 2024SC Braga 4–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 9 March 2024Rio Ave 0–0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
  • 7 October 2023SC Braga 2–1 Rio AvePrimeira Liga

The full Rio Ave vs SC Braga record →

Leading scorers: Rio Ave and SC Braga

Rio Ave

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

SC Braga

GoalsAssists

  • Pau Victor51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

SC Braga won 1–0 at Rio Ave. The model had made a win for SC Braga its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Ricardo Horta (penalty) 67' for SC Braga. On expected goals it finished 0.26–1.91.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rio Ave a 60.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 50.5% after a win, 60.2% after a draw, 63.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.9%, 3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rio Ave v SC Braga has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 22% / 25% / 53% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 19% / 23% / 58%: the biggest move is SC Braga's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Rio Ave win19%▼ −3
  2. Draw23%▼ −2
  3. SC Braga win58%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.