Vitória SC vs FC Porto Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Vitória SC 1-2 FC Porto.
Before kick-off the model made it 16% Vitória SC, 24% draw, 60% FC Porto — fair odds of 6.25, 4.17 and 1.67.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC Porto at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitória SC vs FC Porto
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 98Lucas FurtadoG
- 23T. StrataD
- 21T. BorevkovićD
- 5A. SidibéD
- 13João MendesD
- 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
- 16BeniM
- 7O. CamaraM
- 20SamuM
- 11GustavoM
- 9A. JakupovicF
- 10AlanM
- 44L. DoucetM
- 2Miguel MagaD
- 6M. MitrovićM
- 24A. NdoyeF
- 17Miguel NogueiraF
- 29V. OuotroF
- 4Óscar RivasD
- 28Thiago BalieiroD
- 99Diogo CostaG
- 20Alberto BaioD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 4J. KiwiorD
- 12Z. SanusiD
- 8Victor Mow FroholdtM
- 13P. RosarioM
- 10Gabri VeigaM
- 11Pepê AquinoF
- 9SamuF
- 17Borja SainzF
- 22A. VarelaM
- 14Cláudio RamosG
- 33SouzaD
- 21D. PrpićD
- 77O. PietuszewskiF
- 18N. PérezD
- 74Francisco MouraD
- 16Hwang In-BeomM
- 29S. GiménezF
Form going into Vitória SC vs FC Porto
Vitória SC
Primeira Liga
- D0-0away to GIL Vicente2 November 2026
- W5-0Maritimo23 October 2026
- L0-2away to Benfica11 October 2026
- D1-1Moreirense20 September 2026
FC Porto
Primeira Liga
- W4-0Estoril31 October 2026
- W1-0away to GIL Vicente24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Maritimo10 October 2026
- W3-1Benfica20 September 2026
What these results say
- Vitória SC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Vitória SC had two goals or fewer.
- FC Porto won every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Porto scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for FC Porto had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Vitória SC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
| 1 | FC Porto | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 5 | +22 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitória SC vs FC Porto
- 18 January 2026Vitória SC 0–1 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 4 December 2025FC Porto 1–3 Vitória SCTaça da Liga
- 11 August 2025FC Porto 3–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 24 February 2025FC Porto 1–1 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 21 September 2024Vitória SC 0–3 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 17 April 2024FC Porto 3–1 Vitória SCTaça de Portugal
Leading scorers: Vitória SC and FC Porto
Vitória SC
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
FC Porto
GoalsAssists
- Borja Sainz61
- Gabri Veiga54
- André Silva42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Porto won 2–1 at Vitória SC. The model had made a win for FC Porto its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Borja Sainz 38' for FC Porto, Alan de Souza Guimarães 77' for Vitória SC, Martim Fernandes 86' for FC Porto. On expected goals it finished 0.74–1.64.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vitória SC a 6.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 2.7% after a win, 5.8% after a draw, 7.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.1%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.
For FC Porto the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 69.4% going in: 72.6% after a win, 62.3% after a draw, 60.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 72.6%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Vitória SC v FC Porto has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 17% / 25% / 58% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 16% / 24% / 60%: the biggest move is FC Porto's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Vitória SC win16%▼ −1
- Draw24%▼ −1
- FC Porto win60%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.