Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Santa Clara 1-2 GIL Vicente.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Santa Clara, 33% draw, 26% GIL Vicente — fair odds of 2.44, 3.03 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Santa Clara at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12NenecaG
- 42Lucas SoaresD
- 4Pedro PachecoD
- 21Emanuel FernandesD
- 85A. InfanteD
- 8José Luís Rocha TavaresM
- 41Daniel BorgesM
- 17João VasconcelosM
- 10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves SantosF
- 7Luis Fernando Santos OliveiraF
- 70Vinícius LopesF
- 81Seydou FofanaM
- 73Léo JacóF
- 9Gonçalo PaciênciaF
- 3Henrique SilvaD
- 99SorrisoF
- 76Tome·de Castro SousaG
- 22VitinhoM
- 11Welinton TorrãoF
- 80Tiago Ribeiro DuarteF
- 30LucãoG
- 47Ricardo EsgaioD
- 3EspigaresD
- 39Jonathan BuatuD
- 45David MoreiraD
- 12A. LausenM
- 86Diogo Ferreira PriosteM
- 77MuriloM
- 10Santi GarcíaM
- 20Gil Pinto MartinsM
- 9WalaceF
- 19GuilhermeM
- 99M. KabaF
- 32M. FernándezM
- 27A. MoreiraF
- 1A. PicornellG
- 94SamuelG
- 2José SilvaD
- 26WeversonD
- 6Zé CarlosM
Form going into Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente
Santa Clara
Primeira Liga
- W2-0away to Maritimo1 November 2026
- L1-2Benfica26 October 2026
- W1-0away to Casa Pia10 October 2026
- D0-0SC Braga20 September 2026
GIL Vicente
Primeira Liga
- D0-0Vitória SC2 November 2026
- L0-1FC Porto24 October 2026
- W2-1away to SC Braga19 October 2026
- W1-0away to Moreirense9 October 2026
What these results say
- Santa Clara scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Santa Clara kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Santa Clara had two goals or fewer.
- 3 of these 4 matches for GIL Vicente had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Santa Clara | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente
- 21 March 2026Santa Clara 1–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 3 November 2025GIL Vicente 1–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 15 March 2025GIL Vicente 0–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 25 October 2024Santa Clara 2–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 6 May 2023Santa Clara 3–2 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 29 December 2022GIL Vicente 1–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Santa Clara and GIL Vicente
Santa Clara
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Paciência51
GIL Vicente
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
GIL Vicente won 2–1 at Santa Clara. The model had leaned towards a win for Santa Clara at 41% and given a win for GIL Vicente 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Antonio Espigares (own goal) 29' for Santa Clara, Walace França 52' for GIL Vicente, Murilo Souza 81' for GIL Vicente. Sent off: Pedro Pacheco (Santa Clara) 62'. On expected goals it finished 0.79–1.21.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.