8 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Estrela vs Sporting CP Primeira Liga prediction & result

Amadora
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Estrela 2-2 Sporting CP.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Estrela, 17% draw, 62% Sporting CP — fair odds of 4.76, 5.88 and 1.61. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sporting CP at 62% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Estrela5%Draw87%Sporting CP8%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

46'
⚽R. Zalazarassist: G. Catamo
Eddy Doué
52'
59'
⚽F. Ioannidisassist: R. Zalazar
61'
🔁F. Ioannidisout: L. Suarez
61'
🔁F. Goncalvesout: S. Andersen
🔁S. Serraout: Robinho
65'
67'
Luis Javier Suárez
⚽L. Antonettiassist: I. Stoica
72'
🔁I. Stoicaout: B. Souza
74'
🔁M. Scholzeout: J. Encada
74'
78'
🔁G. Catamoout: Luis Guilherme
78'
🔁G. Vagiannidisout: I. Fresneda
82'
🔁I. Doumbiaout: J. Derry
⚽B. Souzaassist: Robinho
84'
🔁L. Antonettiout: S. van Hooijdonk
89'
🔁A. Marcusout: Alisson Souza
89'
Bénito
90+2'
90+2'
Jesse Derry

Match stats — Estrela vs Sporting CP

44%Possession56%
9Shots15
4On target8
5Corners4
1.01xG2.63

Goals against chances

Estrela2 from 1.01 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sporting CP2 from 2.63 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Estrela 4-2-3-1
  • 24Leo LinckG
  • 21M. ScholzeD
  • 30Luan PatrickD
  • 4Bernardo SchappoD
  • 55Rafa SoaresD
  • 78S. SerraM
  • 39G. DoueM
  • 99A. MarcusM
  • 14L. ZvonarekM
  • 10I. StoicaM
  • 37L. AntonettiF
Substitutes
  • 22D. GriloG
  • 51D. PintoG
  • 9S. van HooijdonkF
  • 79A. ChernevD
  • 28T. MoustierM
  • 93B. SouzaM
  • 71E. Pedro VangaM
  • 17J. EncadaD
  • 8RobinhoM
Coach: Pepa
Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. SilvaG
  • 13G. VagiannidisD
  • 72E. QuaresmaD
  • 25G. InacioD
  • 50R. DiasD
  • 5S. AltimiraM
  • 77I. DoumbiaM
  • 10G. CatamoM
  • 17R. ZalazarM
  • 58F. GoncalvesM
  • 7F. IoannidisF
Substitutes
  • 12J. VirginiaG
  • 41Diego CallaiG
  • 97L. SuarezF
  • 4S. AndersenM
  • 21Pedro LimaM
  • 26O. DiomandeD
  • 9R. NelF
  • 31Luis GuilhermeF
  • 73E. FelicissimoM
Coach: Rui Borges

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Estrela62401412+210
3Sporting CP6420156+914

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estrela vs Sporting CP

  • 8 August 2026Estrela 2–2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
  • 11 April 2026Estrela 0–1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
  • 30 November 2025Sporting CP 4–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
  • 29 March 2025Estrela 0–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
  • 1 November 2024Sporting CP 5–1 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
  • 29 March 2024Estrela 1–2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Estrela and Sporting CP

Estrela

  • I. Stoica4 goals2 assists
  • A. Marcus4 goals1 assists
  • L. Antonetti4 goals1 assists

Sporting CP

  • L. Suárez5 goals1 assists
  • Flávio Gonçalves3 goals1 assists
  • F. Ioannidis2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.