9 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

Étoile Carouge vs Yverdon Sport Challenge League prediction & result

Stade de la Fontenette, Carouge
Referee: M. Turkes
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Étoile Carouge 0-2 Yverdon Sport.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Étoile Carouge, 30% draw, 39% Yverdon Sport — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Yverdon Sport at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Étoile Carouge0%Draw1%Yverdon Sport99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

46'
🔁V. Fazliuout: V. Tasar
L. Essiena
54'
59'
🔁H. Sessoloout: B. Toma
60'
⚽J. Okitaassist: S. Demhasaj
🔁L. Essienaout: Ricardo Alves
65'
🔁N. Boulkousout: V. Felder
65'
68'
🔁S. Demhasajout: J. Augustin
68'
🔁J. Okitaout: J. Mayorga
M. El Jaouhari
73'
75'
L. Pos
🔁M. El Jaouhariout: O. Sene
77'
🔁M. Tsounguiout: F. Hoxha
77'
78'
⚽B. Toma
84'
🔁E. Pascheout: M. Kanoute
🔁G. Zrankeonout: I. Strohbach
87'

Form going into Étoile Carouge vs Yverdon Sport

Étoile Carouge

Challenge League

  • L1-4away to SC Kriens18 September 2026

Yverdon Sport

Challenge League

  • D0-0Stade Lausanne-Ouchy20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Étoile Carouge133551419-514
3Yverdon Sport136522314+923

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Étoile Carouge vs Yverdon Sport

  • 31 July 2026Yverdon Sport 1–1 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
  • 3 May 2026Yverdon Sport 3–5 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
  • 20 February 2026Étoile Carouge 2–2 Yverdon SportChallenge League
  • 30 November 2025Yverdon Sport 2–0 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
  • 12 September 2025Étoile Carouge 2–1 Yverdon SportChallenge League

The result against the call

Yverdon Sport won 2–0 at Étoile Carouge. The model had made a win for Yverdon Sport its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: J. Okita 60' for Yverdon Sport, B. Toma 78' for Yverdon Sport.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Étoile Carouge a 60.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 47.1% after a win, 63.2% after a draw, 70.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 70.6%, 10.1 points higher than before the match.

For Yverdon Sport the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 76.5% going in: 85.8% after a win, 74.8% after a draw, 67.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 85.8%, 9.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Challenge League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.