Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur Challenge League prediction & result
Final score: Neuchatel Xamax FC 3-0 FC Winterthur.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Neuchatel Xamax FC, 27% draw, 39% FC Winterthur — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC Winterthur at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Challenge League
- L0-3Rapperswil18 September 2026
FC Winterthur
Challenge League
- W2-1FC Aarau18 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 17 |
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur
- 4 September 2026FC Winterthur 4–0 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
- 27 March 2026FC Winterthur 2–1 Neuchatel Xamax FCFriendlies Clubs
- 14 May 2022FC Winterthur 3–1 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
- 18 March 2022Neuchatel Xamax FC 0–0 FC WinterthurChallenge League
- 29 October 2021Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–1 FC WinterthurChallenge League
The result against the call
Neuchatel Xamax FC beat FC Winterthur 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Winterthur at 39% and given a win for Neuchatel Xamax FC 34%. The goals: N. Gjorgjev 25' for Neuchatel Xamax FC, M. Facchinetti 49' for Neuchatel Xamax FC, L. Seydoux 69' for Neuchatel Xamax FC.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Neuchatel Xamax FC a 31.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 20.1% after a win, 32.5% after a draw, 39.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.1%, 11.4 points lower than before the match.
For FC Winterthur the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 86.2% going in: 93.5% after a win, 85.3% after a draw, 78.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.9%, 7.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Challenge League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.