9 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau Challenge League prediction & result

Colovray Sports Centre, Nyon
Referee: M. Londino
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Stade Nyonnais 2-1 FC Aarau.

Before kick-off the model made it 16% Stade Nyonnais, 26% draw, 58% FC Aarau — fair odds of 6.25, 3.85 and 1.72.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Aarau at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

R. Londja
32'
R. Philippin
39'
56'
D. Afriyie
⚽I. Aliu (OG)
57'
62'
🔁L. Obexerout: B. Senyurt
62'
🔁D. Afriyieout: M. Guindo
🔁L. Ribeiroout: F. Ahuissou
68'
🔁F. Lentiniout: C. Betoubam
68'
⚽S. Edougueassist: C. Betoubam
75'
76'
🔁I. Aliuout: D. Coric
76'
🔁K. Ndauout: A. Beka Beka
🔁S. Edougueout: J. Mandaka
77'
🔁R. Philippinout: E. Gashi
85'
🔁R. Londjaout: F. Hysenaj
85'
85'
🔁S. Vladiout: H. Koide
90+2'
⚽M. Guindoassist: H. Koide

Form going into Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau

Stade Nyonnais

Challenge League

  • L0-5away to FC WIL 190018 September 2026

FC Aarau

Challenge League

  • L1-2away to FC Winterthur18 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Stade Nyonnais132291334-218
6FC Aarau134361924-515

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau

  • 7 August 2026FC Aarau 2–1 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
  • 8 May 2026FC Aarau 5–1 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
  • 20 February 2026Stade Nyonnais 1–1 FC AarauChallenge League
  • 22 November 2025FC Aarau 0–1 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
  • 22 August 2025Stade Nyonnais 4–5 FC AarauChallenge League

The result against the call

Stade Nyonnais beat FC Aarau 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Aarau at 58% and given a win for Stade Nyonnais 16%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: I. Aliu (own goal) 57' for Stade Nyonnais, S. Edougue 75' for Stade Nyonnais, M. Guindo 90+2' for FC Aarau.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Aarau a 53.6% chance to finish in the top four: 60.0% after a win, 44.3% after a draw, 34.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.7%, 18.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Challenge League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Stade Nyonnais v FC Aarau has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 20% / 28% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 16% / 26% / 58%: the biggest move is FC Aarau's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Stade Nyonnais win16%▼ −4
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. FC Aarau win58%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.