9 October 2026, 17:30 UTC

Rapperswil vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Challenge League prediction & result

Rapperswil-Jona
Referee: U. Schnyder
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Rapperswil 0-3 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Rapperswil, 28% draw, 41% Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rapperswil0%Draw1%Stade Lausanne-Ouchy99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
T. Barbet
V. Hamdiu
11'
30'
⚽B. Conus
40'
D. Moussadek
55'
⚽R. Dantas Fernandes
59'
R. Dantas Fernandes
🔁B. Morgadoout: M. Deme
60'
🔁S. Diarrassoubaout: E. Senaya
60'
I. Beka
67'
69'
🔁C. Sowout: J. A. Tur
69'
🔁M. Sartorettiout: J. Atangana
🔁E. Rossierout: R. Bobadilla
72'
77'
🔁V. Trittenout: R. Freitas
🔁A. Charveysout: L. Emini
82'
🔁N. Mupembaout: D. Muzzi
82'
83'
⚽J. Atangana
87'
🔁D. Moussadekout: L. Hajrulahu
87'
🔁T. Barbetout: H. Lukembila

Form going into Rapperswil vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Rapperswil

Challenge League

  • W3-0away to Neuchatel Xamax FC18 September 2026

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Challenge League

  • D0-0away to Yverdon Sport20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Rapperswil133281826-811
1Stade Lausanne-Ouchy13940286+2231

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rapperswil vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

  • 7 August 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2–0 RapperswilChallenge League
  • 7 April 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1–2 RapperswilChallenge League
  • 24 January 2026Rapperswil 1–0 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
  • 6 December 2025Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0–2 RapperswilChallenge League
  • 22 August 2025Rapperswil 1–2 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League

The result against the call

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy won 3–0 at Rapperswil. The model had made a win for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: B. Conus 30' for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, R. Dantas Fernandes 55' for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, J. Atangana 83' for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rapperswil a 36.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 23.8% after a win, 37.6% after a draw, 44.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.7%, 8.3 points higher than before the match.

For Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the question was the chance to win the league, 69.8% going in: 79.5% after a win, 66.1% after a draw, 59.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.5%, 9.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Challenge League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rapperswil v Stade Lausanne-Ouchy has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 31% / 30% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 31% / 28% / 41%: the biggest move is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Rapperswil win31%=
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win41%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.