13 September 2026, 12:15 UTC

Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna First League prediction & result

Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, Sofia
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Slavia Sofia 0-0 Spartak Varna.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Slavia Sofia, 29% draw, 24% Spartak Varna — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Slavia Sofia at 47% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Slavia Sofia5%Draw93%Spartak Varna2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Roberto Iliev Raychevout: umaro balde
46'
50'
Angel Granchov
60'
Boubacar Hanne
David Malembana
65'
🔁Kristiyan Stoyanovout: Vladimir Nikolov
65'
66'
🔁anton ivanovout: angel gomes
66'
🔁David Valverdeout: Deyan Lozev
🔁Ivan Minchevout: mouhamed dosso
74'
75'
🔁Ahmed Ahmedovout: Okoh chidera
75'
🔁Tomas Silvaout: Joao Lopes
Diego Ferraresso
80'
🔁yoan bornosuzovout: emilian gogev
81'
🔁Emil Stoevout: vasil kazaldzhiev
81'
86'
🔁Boubacar Hanneout: Tsvetelin Chunchukov

Match stats — Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna

59%Possession41%
6Shots13
1On target6
9Corners3

Line-ups

Slavia Sofia 4-2-3-1
  • 99I. AndonovG
  • 20J. Semedo VarelaD
  • 5David MalembanaD
  • 4N. SavićD
  • 87D. FerraressoD
  • 71K. StoyanovD
  • 95V. MiletićM
  • 7R. RaychevF
  • 73I. MinchevM
  • 77E. StoevF
  • 9Y. BornosuzovF
Substitutes
  • 6B. TodorovM
  • 8Petrov Georgi ShopovF
  • 63L. NtumbaG
  • 10V. NikolovM
  • 24L. MarinD
  • 16Maksimilian LazarovD
  • 17Vasil KazaldzhievF
  • 19E. GogevF
  • 3M. GeorgievD
Coach: Ratko Dostanic
Spartak Varna 4-2-3-1
  • 23P. IlievG
  • 76David ValverdeD
  • 44A. GranchovD
  • 45J. TshitokuD
  • 4B. IvanovD
  • 19S. MajorM
  • 17T. MarinovM
  • 11Boubacar HanneF
  • 82Tomás SilvaM
  • 77A. IvanovF
  • 70A. AhmedovF
Substitutes
  • 90C. OkohF
  • 1Pedro VictorG
  • 9T. ChunchukovF
  • 80A. GomesF
  • 10J. LopesF
  • 5D. KrastevD
  • 20D. LozevD
  • 72Vasco OliveiraD
  • 16Edson SilvaM
Coach: V. Petrov

Form going into Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna

Slavia Sofia

  • W1-0away to Dunav Ruse7 September 2026
  • L1-2Levski Sofia2 September 2026
  • D1-1Septemvri Sofia28 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Ludogorets22 August 2026

Spartak Varna

  • D1-1CSKA Sofia5 September 2026
  • D1-1Ludogorets30 August 2026
  • L0-6away to Levski Sofia22 August 2026
  • L0-1Septemvri Sofia17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Slavia Sofia925286+211
8Spartak Varna92431014-410

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna

  • 13 September 2026Slavia Sofia 0–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 10 May 2026Spartak Varna 2–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
  • 6 March 2026Slavia Sofia 4–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 28 September 2025Spartak Varna 1–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
  • 9 December 2024Spartak Varna 1–3 Slavia SofiaFirst League
  • 9 August 2024Slavia Sofia 3–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.