Heerenveen vs Telstar Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Heerenveen 0-0 Telstar.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Heerenveen, 29% draw, 31% Telstar — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Heerenveen at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Heerenveen vs Telstar
Line-ups
- 22B. KlaverboerG
- 45O. BraudeD
- 4S. KerstenD
- 3M. WillemsenD
- 19V. ZagaritisD
- 14L. SmansM
- 36N. CourtensM
- 20J. TrenskowM
- 10R. MeerveldM
- 7M. RiveraM
- 9D. VenteF
- 23D. BladiD
- 21M. FarjiF
- 29L. MachineF
- 44A. NoppertG
- 11L. OyenF
- 28H. PetrovD
- 41J. ScholtenD
- 17R. UldriķisF
- 30T. SchreuderG
- 1R. KoemanG
- 16S. ValkD
- 4A. SoualhiaD
- 43M. PeersmanD
- 3Gerald AldersM
- 30T. OwusuM
- 17N. RossenM
- 2J. HardeveldM
- 7Rui MendesM
- 27P. BrouwerM
- 11N. ÞórissonF
- 15P. AningM
- 21F. TurayF
- 23N. ShenkmanM
- 20D. ReizigerG
- 37R. OudstenD
- 13Finn MulderG
- 19A. MarthaD
- 14H. KusterM
- 8E. DemircanF
Form going into Heerenveen vs Telstar
Heerenveen
All competitions we cover
- L2-3AZ Alkmaar6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Willem II30 August 2026
- L0-2PEC Zwolle22 August 2026
- D2-2away to Ajax16 August 2026
- W1-0Twente9 August 2026
Telstar
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Twente9 September 2026
- D2-2Cambuur6 September 2026
- L0-4Ajax30 August 2026
- L1-3Sparta Rotterdam14 August 2026
- W2-1away to NEC Nijmegen8 August 2026
What these results say
- Heerenveen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Heerenveen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Heerenveen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Telstar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Telstar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Telstar had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 21 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Heerenveen vs Telstar
- 14 March 2026Heerenveen 3–0 TelstarEredivisie
- 19 October 2025Telstar 2–3 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 11 July 2025Heerenveen 1–1 TelstarFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Heerenveen and Telstar
Heerenveen
GoalsAssists
- J. Trenskow63
- R. Meerveld51
Telstar
GoalsAssists
- T. Owusu51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Heerenveen and Telstar drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Heerenveen at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.
How the call on Heerenveen v Telstar has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is Heerenveen's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Heerenveen win40%▲ +2
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Telstar win31%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.