13 September 2026, 12:30 UTC

Heerenveen vs Telstar Eredivisie prediction & result

Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Heerenveen 0-0 Telstar.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Heerenveen, 29% draw, 31% Telstar — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Heerenveen at 40% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Heerenveen4%Draw92%Telstar4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Sam Kerstenout: Hristiyan Petrov
53'
🔁Maxence Riveraout: Luca Oyen
61'
🔁Levi Smansout: Roberts Uldriķis
61'
Vasilios Zagaritis
69'
69'
🔁Nökkvi Þeyr Þórissonout: Jelani Seedorf
75'
🔁Rui Mendesout: Harrie Kuster
🔁Jacob Trenskowout: Marko Farji
82'
Marko Farji
83'
87'
🔁Tyrone Owusuout: Isaiah Ahmed

Match stats — Heerenveen vs Telstar

63%Possession37%
23Shots12
6On target2
8Corners6

Line-ups

Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
  • 22B. KlaverboerG
  • 45O. BraudeD
  • 4S. KerstenD
  • 3M. WillemsenD
  • 19V. ZagaritisD
  • 14L. SmansM
  • 36N. CourtensM
  • 20J. TrenskowM
  • 10R. MeerveldM
  • 7M. RiveraM
  • 9D. VenteF
Substitutes
  • 23D. BladiD
  • 21M. FarjiF
  • 29L. MachineF
  • 44A. NoppertG
  • 11L. OyenF
  • 28H. PetrovD
  • 41J. ScholtenD
  • 17R. UldriķisF
  • 30T. SchreuderG
Coach: R. Veldeman
Telstar 3-4-2-1
  • 1R. KoemanG
  • 16S. ValkD
  • 4A. SoualhiaD
  • 43M. PeersmanD
  • 3Gerald AldersM
  • 30T. OwusuM
  • 17N. RossenM
  • 2J. HardeveldM
  • 7Rui MendesM
  • 27P. BrouwerM
  • 11N. ÞórissonF
Substitutes
  • 15P. AningM
  • 21F. TurayF
  • 23N. ShenkmanM
  • 20D. ReizigerG
  • 37R. OudstenD
  • 13Finn MulderG
  • 19A. MarthaD
  • 14H. KusterM
  • 8E. DemircanF
Coach: H. Brugge

Form going into Heerenveen vs Telstar

Heerenveen

  • L2-3AZ Alkmaar6 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Willem II30 August 2026
  • L0-2PEC Zwolle22 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Ajax16 August 2026

Telstar

  • L0-1away to Twente9 September 2026
  • D2-2Cambuur6 September 2026
  • L0-4Ajax30 August 2026
  • L1-3Sparta Rotterdam14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Heerenveen613279-26
13Telstar6123511-65

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Heerenveen vs Telstar

  • 13 September 2026Heerenveen 0–0 TelstarEredivisie
  • 14 March 2026Heerenveen 3–0 TelstarEredivisie
  • 19 October 2025Telstar 2–3 HeerenveenEredivisie
  • 11 July 2025Heerenveen 1–1 TelstarFriendlies Clubs
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.