6 September 2026, 14:30 UTC

FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano Super League prediction & result

St. Jakob-Park, Basel
Full time1 – 3

Final score: FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC Lugano.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% FC Basel 1893, 30% draw, 32% FC Lugano — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Basel 1893 at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Basel 18930%Draw1%FC Lugano99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
Dereck Moncada
🔁Jonas Omlinout: Mirko Salvi
45'
🔁Ludwig Thorellout: Xherdan Shaqiri
45'
🔁Jonas harderout: Abemly Meto Silu Metinho
45'
⚽Abemly Meto Silu Metinhoassist: Asane Sow
47'
59'
⚽Yanis Cimignaniassist: Renato Steffen
59'
Yanis Cimignani
61'
⚽Uran Bislimi
🔁Kazeem Olaigbeout: Philip Otele
63'
63'
🔁Dereck Moncadaout: Albian Ajeti
Xherdan Shaqiri
70'
72'
Anto Grgic
79'
🔁Renato Steffenout: Elias Pihlstrom
79'
🔁Daniel Dos Santos Correiaout: Ahmed Kendouci
81'
⚽Ahmed Kendouciassist: Elias Pihlstrom
🔁Asane Sowout: Aaron Malouda
84'
85'
Uran Bislimi
87'
Elias Pihlstrom
90'
🔁Uran Bislimiout: Gjan Ajdin
90+1'
🔁Yanis Cimignaniout: Joao Victor Schlickmann Carbone

Match stats — FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano

44%Possession56%
5Shots23
2On target5
1Corners7

Line-ups

FC Basel 1893 4-3-3
  • 1J. OmlinG
  • 6K. TsunemotoD
  • 24F. DaniliucD
  • 55A. VictoryD
  • 3N. VouillozD
  • 44J. HarderM
  • 4B. OmeragićM
  • 8L. Małachowski ThorellM
  • 18A. SowF
  • 9Ž. CelarF
  • 11K. OlaigbeF
Substitutes
  • 14A. BačaninM
  • 5MetinhoM
  • 7P. OteleF
  • 27K. RüeggD
  • 13M. SalviG
  • 10X. ShaqiriM
  • 17A. MaloudaF
  • 37G. KolotoF
  • 41J. DoucoureM
Coach: Stephan Lichtsteiner
FC Lugano 3-5-2
  • 16D. von BallmoosG
  • 6A. PapadopoulosD
  • 17L. MaiD
  • 3H. DelcroixD
  • 2B. KarimovM
  • 25U. BislimiM
  • 8A. GrgićM
  • 27Daniel Dos SantosM
  • 21Y. CimignaniM
  • 11R. SteffenF
  • 30D. MoncadaF
Substitutes
  • 9A. AjetiF
  • 18J. BichselD
  • 22B. CastroF
  • 28F. GebhardtG
  • 4D. KelvinD
  • 14A. KendouciM
  • 24E. PihlströmF
  • 23G. AjdinM
  • 44João Victor Schlickmann CarboneD
Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Form going into FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano

FC Basel 1893

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2FC Sion3 September 2026
  • D3-3away to BSC Young Boys29 August 2026
  • W2-1away to FC Zurich22 August 2026
  • W4-2FC Thun9 August 2026
  • L0-1Lausanne1 August 2026

FC Lugano

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Servette FC3 September 2026
  • W2-1away to FC Sion30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Maccabi Tel Aviv27 August 2026
  • W2-1Maccabi Tel Aviv20 August 2026
  • D2-2away to NSI Runavik13 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Basel 1893 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Basel 1893 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for FC Basel 1893 had three goals or more.
  • FC Lugano went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Lugano conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7FC Basel 1893134362125-415
1FC Lugano1311113615+2134

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano

  • 17 May 2026FC Lugano 4–0 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 15 February 2026FC Basel 1893 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 9 November 2025FC Basel 1893 0–1 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 10 August 2025FC Lugano 3–1 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 10 May 2025FC Lugano 2–5 FC Basel 1893Super League

Leading scorers: FC Basel 1893 and FC Lugano

FC Basel 1893

GoalsAssists

  • Ž. Celar82

FC Lugano

GoalsAssists

  • Daniel Dos Santos51
  • D. Moncada51
  • Y. Cimignani40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Lugano won 3–1 at FC Basel 1893. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Basel 1893 at 38% and given a win for FC Lugano 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Abemly Meto Silu Metinho 47' for FC Basel 1893, Yanis Cimignani 59' for FC Lugano, Uran Bislimi 61' for FC Lugano, Ahmed Kendouci 81' for FC Lugano.

How the call on FC Basel 1893 v FC Lugano has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 30% / 32%: the biggest move is FC Basel 1893's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. FC Basel 1893 win38%▼ −2
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. FC Lugano win32%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.