6 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee Premiership prediction & result

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Heart of Midlothian 2-1 Dundee.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Heart of Midlothian, 27% draw, 28% Dundee — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Heart of Midlothian at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Heart of Midlothian5%Draw91%Dundee4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
🔁Joe Westleyout: Bobby Wales
17'
⚽Bradley·Finkassist: Imari Samuels
Josh Mcpake
35'
45+8'
Ryan Finnigan
45'
🔁Ryan Finniganout: Jack Moorhouse
🔁Oisin McEnteeout: Harry Milne
45'
🔁Calvin Millerout: Sabah Kerjota
60'
🔁Jordi Altenaout: Christian Dahle Borchgrevink
60'
62'
Ethan Hamilton
65'
🔁Bradley·Finkout: Joe Wright
65'
🔁Alan Forrestout: Joseph Bevan
🔁James wilsonout: Jerome Williams
66'
69'
Imari Samuels
76'
🔁Finlay Robertsonout: Zan Besir
•Christian Dahle Borchgrevink
82'
⚽Claudio Rafael Soares Braga (pen)
84'
87'
🔁Imari Samuelsout: Charlie Reilly
90'
•Zan Besir
90+1'
Zan Besir
⚽Sabah Kerjotaassist: Josh Mcpake
90+6'
Sabah Kerjota
90+7'

Match stats — Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee

55%Possession45%
27Shots4
7On target1
14Corners2

Line-ups

Heart of Midlothian 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. ReusG
  • 23J. AltenaD
  • 6O. McEnteeD
  • 17S. FindlayD
  • 5J. McCartD
  • 22T. MagnússonM
  • 78L. MendyM
  • 7C. MillerM
  • 10Cláudio BragaM
  • 15J. McPakeM
  • 21J. WilsonF
Substitutes
  • 2C. BorchgrevinkD
  • 30R. FultonG
  • 19S. GuendouzF
  • 11P. KaboreF
  • 29S. KerjotaF
  • 74R. MatoF
  • 18H. MilneD
  • 9J. WilliamsF
  • 77A. Ba-SyF
Coach: W. Vrancken
Dundee 4-4-2
  • 1O. GoodmanG
  • 7D. WrightD
  • 4R. AstleyD
  • 5O. BevanD
  • 12I. SamuelsD
  • 10F. RobertsonM
  • 8R. FinniganM
  • 48E. HamiltonM
  • 14A. ForrestM
  • 21B. FinkF
  • 19J. WestleyF
Substitutes
  • 2B. HallidayD
  • 13K. O'HaraG
  • 3I. OdutayoD
  • 18C. ReillyF
  • 9B. WalesF
  • 26J. WrightD
  • 27J. BevanM
  • 17Ž. BeširM
  • 16J. MoorhouseM
Coach: S. Pressley

Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee

Heart of Midlothian

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026
  • W2-1St Johnstone29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Rapid Vienna26 August 2026
  • D2-2Rapid Vienna20 August 2026
  • D1-1Benfica13 August 2026

Dundee

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1St Johnstone2 September 2026
  • L1-2Hibernian30 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Dundee United22 August 2026
  • W2-0Aberdeen8 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Celtic3 August 2026

What these results say

  • Heart of Midlothian went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Heart of Midlothian conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Dundee scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Dundee had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Heart of Midlothian126242622+420
5Dundee125251815+317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee

  • 21 March 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 DundeePremiership
  • 11 January 2026Dundee 0–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
  • 1 November 2025Heart of Midlothian 4–0 DundeePremiership
  • 26 April 2025Heart of Midlothian 0–1 DundeePremiership
  • 7 March 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–1 DundeeFA Cup

Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and Dundee

Heart of Midlothian

GoalsAssists

  • Cláudio Braga62
  • C. Miller51
  • J. McPake36

Dundee

GoalsAssists

  • B. Fink40
  • J. Westley40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Heart of Midlothian beat Dundee 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Heart of Midlothian at 45%. The goals: Bradley·Fink 17' for Dundee, Claudio Rafael Soares Braga (penalty) 84' for Heart of Midlothian, Sabah Kerjota 90+6' for Heart of Midlothian. Sent off: Zan Besir (Dundee) 90+1'.

How the call on Heart of Midlothian v Dundee has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Dundee's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Heart of Midlothian win45%▼ −1
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Dundee win28%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.