Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Heart of Midlothian 2-1 Dundee.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Heart of Midlothian, 27% draw, 28% Dundee — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heart of Midlothian at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee
Line-ups
- 1B. ReusG
- 23J. AltenaD
- 6O. McEnteeD
- 17S. FindlayD
- 5J. McCartD
- 22T. MagnússonM
- 78L. MendyM
- 7C. MillerM
- 10Cláudio BragaM
- 15J. McPakeM
- 21J. WilsonF
- 2C. BorchgrevinkD
- 30R. FultonG
- 19S. GuendouzF
- 11P. KaboreF
- 29S. KerjotaF
- 74R. MatoF
- 18H. MilneD
- 9J. WilliamsF
- 77A. Ba-SyF
- 1O. GoodmanG
- 7D. WrightD
- 4R. AstleyD
- 5O. BevanD
- 12I. SamuelsD
- 10F. RobertsonM
- 8R. FinniganM
- 48E. HamiltonM
- 14A. ForrestM
- 21B. FinkF
- 19J. WestleyF
- 2B. HallidayD
- 13K. O'HaraG
- 3I. OdutayoD
- 18C. ReillyF
- 9B. WalesF
- 26J. WrightD
- 27J. BevanM
- 17Ž. BeširM
- 16J. MoorhouseM
Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee
Heart of Midlothian
- W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026
- W2-1St Johnstone29 August 2026
- W4-0Dundee United9 August 2026
Dundee
- D1-1St Johnstone2 September 2026
- L1-2Hibernian30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Dundee United22 August 2026
- W2-0Aberdeen8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Dundee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee
- 6 September 2026Heart of Midlothian 2–1 DundeePremiership
- 21 March 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 DundeePremiership
- 11 January 2026Dundee 0–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 1 November 2025Heart of Midlothian 4–0 DundeePremiership
- 26 April 2025Heart of Midlothian 0–1 DundeePremiership
- 7 March 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–1 DundeeFA Cup
Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and Dundee
Heart of Midlothian
- J. Wilson3 goals
- J. McPake2 goals4 assists
- Cláudio Braga2 goals2 assists
Dundee
- J. Westley2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.