23 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

FC Botosani vs Petrolul Ploiesti Liga I prediction & result

Stadionul Municipal
Referee: Marcel Birsan, Romania
Full time1 – 3

Final score: FC Botosani 1-3 Petrolul Ploiesti.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% FC Botosani, 28% draw, 25% Petrolul Ploiesti — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Botosani at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Botosani0%Draw1%Petrolul Ploiesti99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
⚽Rodrigo Martinsassist: Teixeira leo
mamadou diarra
30'
Marius Croitoru
37'
39'
⚽Mario Ioniță
🔁Hervin Ongendaout: Charles Petro
40'
45+5'
Andres Dumitrescu
🔁Andrei Mironout: Rijad·Sadiku
45'
🔁Enriko Papaout: Mykola Kovtalyuk
45'
🔁Ştefan Bodişteanuout: Gabriel Gama
45'
50'
Rodrigo Martins
54'
⚽Rodrigo Martinsassist: Sergiu Hanca
57'
🔁Sergiu Hancaout: Adam Zaian
Rijad·Sadiku
59'
🔁Zoran Mitrovout: Jovan Marković
59'
⚽Andrei Dumiter
64'
66'
Breston Malula
72'
🔁Mario Ionițăout: Rareș Leescu
72'
🔁Luciano Gaston Vega Albornozout: Calal Hüseynov
72'
🔁Dan N'Lunduluout: Dele Ola
Narcis Ilas
83'
84'
Teixeira leo
Charles Petro
90+5'
90+6'
🔁Rodrigo Martinsout: Kilian Ludewig
90+7'
Rodrigo Martins

Match stats — FC Botosani vs Petrolul Ploiesti

56%Possession44%
12Shots10
6On target4
3Corners0
1.31xG1.36

Goals against chances

FC Botosani1 from 1.31 xGabout what the chances were worth
Petrolul Ploiesti3 from 1.36 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Botosani 4-3-3
  • 99G. AnestisG
  • 2B. BayeyeD
  • 4A. MironD
  • 94M. DiarraD
  • 73N. IlașD
  • 21Lucas de VegaM
  • 67E. PapaM
  • 26H. OngendaM
  • 10Ș. BodișteanuF
  • 41A. DumiterF
  • 11Z. MitrovF
Substitutes
  • 27Ionuț Cristian GurăuG
  • 77Gama GabrielM
  • 8R. IdowuM
  • 22M. KovtalyukF
  • 7S. MailatF
  • 9J. MarkovićF
  • 3C. PetroD
  • 90Mario PredaF
  • 5R. CreţD
Coach: M. Croitoru
Petrolul Ploiesti 4-2-3-1
  • 38L. ZimaG
  • 66T. CăpușăD
  • 4P. PappD
  • 71B. MalulaD
  • 2A. DumitrescuD
  • 19Léo TeixeiraM
  • 20S. HancaM
  • 8L. VegaM
  • 7Rodrigo MartinsM
  • 9D. NlunduluF
  • 80M. IonițăF
Substitutes
  • 18C. HüseynovD
  • 26Liviu ArgeșanuM
  • 10A. BranM
  • 12Ș. GeorgescuG
  • 99O. DeleM
  • 30R. LeescuD
  • 29K. LudewigD
  • 40R. ManolacheM
  • 21David IonutM
Coach: Ricardo Sousa

Form going into FC Botosani vs Petrolul Ploiesti

FC Botosani

Liga I

  • L0-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti16 October 2026
  • W2-0Uta Arad10 October 2026

Petrolul Ploiesti

Liga I

  • D1-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe17 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Farul Constanta11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12FC Botosani153661920-115
4Petrolul Ploiesti158342018+227

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Botosani vs Petrolul Ploiesti

  • 10 May 2026FC Botosani 1–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
  • 7 March 2026FC Botosani 0–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
  • 3 November 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–0 FC BotosaniLiga I
  • 14 March 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–2 FC BotosaniLiga I
  • 27 January 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 3–1 FC BotosaniLiga I
  • 1 September 2024FC Botosani 0–2 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I

Leading scorers: FC Botosani and Petrolul Ploiesti

FC Botosani

GoalsAssists

  • A. Dumiter70

Petrolul Ploiesti

GoalsAssists

  • A. Bran43
  • Rodrigo Martins42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Petrolul Ploiesti won 3–1 at FC Botosani. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Botosani at 47% and given a win for Petrolul Ploiesti 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Rodrigo Martins 27' for Petrolul Ploiesti, Mario Ioniță 39' for Petrolul Ploiesti, Rodrigo Martins 54' for Petrolul Ploiesti, Andrei Dumiter 64' for FC Botosani. Sent off: Narcis Ilas (FC Botosani) 83', Rodrigo Martins (Petrolul Ploiesti) 90+7'. On expected goals it finished 1.31–1.36.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Botosani a 21.8% chance to finish in the top six: 25.8% after a win, 18.3% after a draw, 13.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.0%, 8.8 points lower than before the match.

For Petrolul Ploiesti the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 30.3% going in: 41.1% after a win, 29.9% after a draw, 25.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.1%, 10.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Botosani v Petrolul Ploiesti has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is FC Botosani's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. FC Botosani win47%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Petrolul Ploiesti win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.