23 October 2026, 10:00 UTC

Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar Premier League prediction & result

Tsentralnyi Stadion, Zhytomyr
Referee: Andrey Kovalenko, Ukraine
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Polessya 3-0 Obolon'-Brovar.

Before kick-off the model made it 75% Polessya, 17% draw, 8% Obolon'-Brovar — fair odds of 1.33, 5.88 and 12.50.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Polessya at 75%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Polessya99%Draw1%Obolon'-Brovar0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽leandro andradeassist: Borys Krushynskyi
9'
Eduard Sarapiy
13'
🔁Lindon Emerllahuout: Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
58'
🔁leandro andradeout: Oleksandr Nazarenko
58'
⚽Igor Krasnopirassist: Oleksandr Nazarenko
59'
66'
🔁Andriy Matkevychout: Igor Medynskyi
66'
🔁Sergiy Sukhanovout: Artem Shulyanskyi
68'
Denys Ustymenko
🔁Igor Krasnopirout: Mykola Gayduchyk
68'
🔁Oleg Fedorout: Oleksandr Filippov
68'
⚽Vladyslav Veletenassist: Borys Krushynskyi
70'
77'
🔁Maksym Chekhout: Dmytro Myshnyov
77'
🔁Denys Ustymenkoout: Denys Teslyuk
🔁Borys Krushynskyiout: Oleksandr Ivanov
77'
80'
🔁Oleg Slobodyanout: Taras Moroz
90'
Taras Moroz

Match stats — Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar

70%Possession30%
13Shots3
7On target0
7Corners1

Line-ups

Polessya 4-1-4-1
  • 23Y. VolynetsG
  • 15B. MykhailichenkoD
  • 44S. ChobotenkoD
  • 5E. SarapiyD
  • 55B. KrushynskyiD
  • 8R. BabenkoM
  • 11Leandro AndradeM
  • 14L. EmërllahuM
  • 27O. FedorM
  • 10V. VeletenM
  • 95I. KrasnopirF
Substitutes
  • 77N. MakarenkoG
  • 89M. GayduchykF
  • 9O. FilippovF
  • 45M. BragaruM
  • 25Oleksandr IvanovM
  • 19V. ShepelevM
  • 18O. AndrievskyiM
  • 94D. GryshkevychD
  • 31G. MaisuradzeD
Coach: R. Rotan
Obolon'-Brovar 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. FedorivskyiG
  • 28P. PolehenkoD
  • 30K. ProkopchukD
  • 32A. LomnytskyiD
  • 5Y. ShevchenkoD
  • 6M. ChekhM
  • 8A. KulakovskyiM
  • 55S. SukhanovM
  • 10O. SlobodyanM
  • 7A. MatkevychM
  • 9D. UstymenkoF
Substitutes
  • 99D. TeslyukF
  • 3V. ErmakovD
  • 2D. KapinusD
  • 78Vladyslav SkrygunD
  • 20R. VolokhatyiM
  • 13I. MedynskyiM
  • 15D. MyshnovM
  • 4T. MorozM
  • 24E. ProkopenkoD
Coach: O. Antonenko

Form going into Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar

Polessya

Premier League

  • W3-1Dynamo Kyiv18 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Bukovyna11 October 2026
  • W1-0Kryvbas KR18 September 2026

Obolon'-Brovar

Premier League

  • W2-0Veres Rivne16 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Chornomorets18 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ukraine Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Polessya11911258+1728
14Obolon'-Brovar11155518-138

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar

  • 26 April 2026Polessya 3–1 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
  • 25 October 2025Obolon'-Brovar 0–4 PolessyaPremier League
  • 28 February 2025Obolon'-Brovar 0–0 PolessyaPremier League
  • 25 August 2024Polessya 4–0 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
  • 16 March 2024Obolon'-Brovar 1–0 PolessyaPremier League
  • 2 September 2023Polessya 2–0 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League

Leading scorers: Polessya and Obolon'-Brovar

Polessya

GoalsAssists

  • I. Krasnopir81
  • V. Veleten41

Obolon'-Brovar

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Polessya beat Obolon'-Brovar 3–0. The model had made a win for Polessya its most likely outcome, at 75%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: leandro andrade 9' for Polessya, Igor Krasnopir 59' for Polessya, Vladyslav Veleten 70' for Polessya.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Polessya a 10.0% chance to finish top of the regular season: 10.6% after a win, 6.0% after a draw, 2.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.6%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.

For Obolon'-Brovar the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 76.0% going in: 57.0% after a win, 70.8% after a draw, 78.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.0%, 2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Polessya v Obolon'-Brovar has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 79% / 14% / 7% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 75% / 17% / 8%: the biggest move is Polessya's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Polessya win75%▼ −4
  2. Draw17%▲ +3
  3. Obolon'-Brovar win8%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.