Bolton vs Middlesbrough Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bolton 1-5 Middlesbrough.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Bolton, 27% draw, 39% Middlesbrough — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Middlesbrough at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31G. BazunuG
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
- 18E. ToalD
- 5L. BruntD
- 14A. FamewoD
- 8J. SheehanM
- 21E. ErhahonM
- 7K. DongM
- 20Ruben RodriguesM
- 11T. GaleM
- 9T. BairF
- 1J. BonhamG
- 25M. ConwayD
- 10S. DalbyF
- 6B. DaviesD
- 39R. HardieF
- 16S. Iling-JuniorF
- 17A. ItoM
- 4X. SimonsM
- 27Luca StephensonM
- 1R. VítekG
- 2C. BrittainD
- 4A. PhillipsD
- 29A. MalandaD
- 30Neto BorgesD
- 10A. MorrisM
- 6S. BerhalterM
- 11A. Cozier-DuberryM
- 8R. McGreeM
- 9T. ConwayM
- 7W. LankshearF
- 16J. SarmientoF
- 14M. Peart-HarrisM
- 22K. JosephF
- 19Leo CastledineM
- 3S. ByramD
- 31S. BrynnG
- 18C. BarronM
- 12L. AylingD
- 17M. ArfstenD
Form going into Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Bolton
Championship
- D0-0away to Southampton17 October 2026
Middlesbrough
Championship
- D2-2Cardiff17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 17 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Bolton and Middlesbrough have met 7 times in the records we hold, Middlesbrough has won 7 of them to Bolton's 0.
The record
Middlesbrough won the last one 5–1 on 23 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 20 |
| Middlesbrough | 7 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 2 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 22 goals, an average of 3.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 23 Oct 2026
ChampionshipBolton 1–5 Middlesbrough - 20 Jul 2024
Friendlies ClubsMiddlesbrough 3–0 Bolton - 29 Aug 2023
League CupBolton 1–3 Middlesbrough - 9 Apr 2019
ChampionshipBolton 0–2 Middlesbrough - 19 Sep 2018
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 2–0 Bolton - 26 Dec 2017
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 2–0 Bolton - 9 Sep 2017
ChampionshipBolton 0–3 Middlesbrough
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Middlesbrough's attack rates 27% above Bolton's, and Middlesbrough concede 32% fewer than Bolton. That gives Middlesbrough the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 0.70 | 1.67 |
| Middlesbrough | 0.89 | 1.14 |
Leading scorers: Bolton and Middlesbrough
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby60
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear130
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Middlesbrough won 5–1 at Bolton. The model had made a win for Middlesbrough its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Aidan Morris 13' for Middlesbrough, will lankshear 31' for Middlesbrough, Lewis Brunt (own goal) 39' for Middlesbrough, Thelonius Bair 45+2' for Bolton, Amario Cozier-Duberry 73' for Middlesbrough, will lankshear 78' for Middlesbrough. On expected goals it finished 0.94–4.19.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bolton a 5.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.4% after a win, 5.4% after a draw, 6.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.5%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
For Middlesbrough the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 25.6% going in: 29.6% after a win, 24.4% after a draw, 21.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.6%, 4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Bolton v Middlesbrough has moved
First published on 9 Oct at 32% / 26% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is Middlesbrough's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Bolton win34%▲ +2
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Middlesbrough win39%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.