25 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result

Toyota Stadium, Frisco
Referee: Rubiel Vazquez
Full time3 – 0

Final score: FC Dallas 3-0 San Jose Earthquakes.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% FC Dallas, 25% draw, 29% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Dallas at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Dallas99%Draw1%San Jose Earthquakes0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
Reid Roberts
64'
Angus Gunn
🔁Joaquín Valiente Cioliout: Santiago Moreno
65'
77'
🔁Jack Jasinskiout: Paul Marie
77'
🔁Ronaldo Vieiraout: N.Tsakiris
77'
🔁Jamar Rickettsout: Vitor Costa
77'
🔁Timo Wernerout: Jack·Skahan
🔁Herman Johanssonout: Ran Binyamin
78'
🔁Daniel Jobout: Patrickson Delgado
78'
⚽Petar Musaassist: Bernard Kamungo
83'
⚽Petar Musa (pen)
88'
🔁Petar Musaout: Christian Cappis
89'
90'
🔁Dave Romneyout: Luka Jovanovic
⚽Santiago Morenoassist: Ramiro
90+4'

Match stats — FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes

52%Possession48%
15Shots4
6On target1
6Corners1
2.48xG0.37

Goals against chances

FC Dallas3 from 2.48 xGmore than the chances were worth
San Jose Earthquakes0 from 0.37 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Dallas 3-4-2-1
  • 42DanielG
  • 25S. IbeaghaD
  • 3O. UrhoghideD
  • 18S. MooreD
  • 14H. JohanssonM
  • 55KaickM
  • 17RamiroM
  • 77B. KamungoM
  • 21J. ValienteM
  • 7D. JobM
  • 9P. MusaF
Substitutes
  • 32N. NorrisD
  • 12C. CappisM
  • 8P. DelgadoM
  • 5L. AbubakarD
  • 6R. BinyaminM
  • 10S. MorenoF
  • 40J. SiroisG
  • 27Caleb SwannM
  • 11A. JulioF
Coach: Eric Quill
San Jose Earthquakes 3-4-2-1
  • 1A. GunnG
  • 5D. MunieD
  • 4D. RomneyD
  • 18R. RobertsD
  • 17Jack JasinskiM
  • 14R. VieiraM
  • 23E. LöwenM
  • 2J. RickettsM
  • 34Beau LerouxM
  • 11T. WernerM
  • 7O. BoudaF
Substitutes
  • 25M. FlorianiD
  • 6I. HarkesM
  • 9L. JovanovićF
  • 3P. MarieD
  • 87Vítor CostaD
  • 20N. FernandezM
  • 36E. EdwardsG
  • 16J. SkahanM
  • 10N. TsakirisM
Coach: B. Arena

Form going into FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes

FC Dallas

Major League Soccer

  • D2-2away to Houston Dynamo18 October 2026

San Jose Earthquakes

Major League Soccer

  • D1-1Nashville SC18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2FC Dallas34161086251+1158
4San Jose Earthquakes341410105751+652

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes

  • 17 May 2026San Jose Earthquakes 2–3 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 17 July 2025San Jose Earthquakes 2–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 26 June 2025FC Dallas 2–4 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 3 October 2024San Jose Earthquakes 3–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 25 February 2024FC Dallas 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 8 October 2023FC Dallas 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes

FC Dallas

GoalsAssists

  • P. Musa225

San Jose Earthquakes

GoalsAssists

  • P. Judd172

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Dallas beat San Jose Earthquakes 3–0. The model had made a win for FC Dallas its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Petar Musa 83' for FC Dallas, Petar Musa (penalty) 88' for FC Dallas, Santiago Moreno 90+4' for FC Dallas. On expected goals it finished 2.48–0.37.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Dallas a 6.0% chance to finish top of the Western Conference: 9.6% after a win, 3.2% after a draw, 1.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.6%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.