25 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Shell Energy Stadium, Houston
Referee: Tori Penso
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Houston Dynamo 0-0 Minnesota United FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Houston Dynamo, 26% draw, 28% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Houston Dynamo at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Houston Dynamo4%Draw91%Minnesota United FC5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Antônio Carlos
9'
Agustín Bouzat
30'
Lawrence Ennali
34'
B. Olsen
44'
B. Olsen
45'
🔁Lyle Fosterout: Duncan McGuire
56'
64'
🔁Mauricio González Carabalíout: Marcus Caldeira
🔁Héctor Herreraout: Ibrahim Aliyu
70'
73'
🔁Jefferson Abel Díaz Beleñoout: Michael Boxall
73'
🔁Aziel Jacksonout: Joaquín Pereyra
🔁Franco Negriout: Marcelo Saracchi
82'
🔁Lawrence Ennaliout: Duane Holmes
82'
🔁Agustín Bouzatout: Diadie Samassekou
83'
90'
🔁Kelvin Yeboahout: Tomás Chancalay

Match stats — Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC

55%Possession45%
10Shots17
1On target5
4Corners7
0.77xG1.36

Goals against chances

Houston Dynamo0 from 0.77 xGless than the chances were worth
Minnesota United FC0 from 1.36 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1
  • 31J. BondG
  • 11L. EnnaliD
  • 3Antônio CarlosD
  • 5Lucas HalterD
  • 21F. NegriD
  • 16H. HerreraM
  • 6ArturM
  • 19M. BoguszM
  • 30A. BouzatM
  • 20GuilhermeM
  • 9L. FosterF
Substitutes
  • 23D. McGuireF
  • 4M. SaracchiD
  • 37G. RiveraM
  • 18D. SamassékouM
  • 24A. IbrahimF
  • 22M. AranaM
  • 26B. GillinghamG
  • 14D. HolmesM
  • 17N. MarkanichF
Coach: Ben Olsen
Minnesota United FC 3-4-3
  • 12D. CallenderG
  • 52Cherrion ValeriusD
  • 28J. DíazD
  • 23M. DugganD
  • 21B. HlongwaneM
  • 25N. TriantisM
  • 30O. GeneM
  • 13A. MarkanichM
  • 16A. JacksonF
  • 9K. YeboahF
  • 18M. GonzalezF
Substitutes
  • 8T. ChancalayF
  • 3K. DuncanD
  • 67C. HarveyM
  • 11M. MaloneF
  • 26J. PereyraM
  • 94Kayne RizvanovichG
  • 5N. RomeroD
  • 15M. BoxallD
  • 22Marcus CaldeiraF
Coach: C. Knowles

Form going into Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC

Houston Dynamo

Major League Soccer

  • D2-2FC Dallas18 October 2026

Minnesota United FC

Major League Soccer

  • W3-2St. Louis City17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Houston Dynamo34149114343051
10Minnesota United FC341111125658-244

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC

  • 11 October 2026Minnesota United FC 2–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 26 June 2025Minnesota United FC 3–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 15 May 2025Houston Dynamo 2–0 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 14 July 2024Houston Dynamo 1–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 14 April 2024Minnesota United FC 1–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 13 July 2023Houston Dynamo 0–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and Minnesota United FC

Houston Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • Guilherme168

Minnesota United FC

GoalsAssists

  • K. Yeboah184

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Houston Dynamo and Minnesota United FC drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Houston Dynamo at 46% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. Sent off: B. Olsen (Houston Dynamo) 45'. On expected goals it finished 0.77–1.36.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Minnesota United FC a 34.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.8% after a win, 32.9% after a draw, 45.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 32.9%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Houston Dynamo v Minnesota United FC has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is Minnesota United FC's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Houston Dynamo win46%▼ −1
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Minnesota United FC win28%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.