25 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Sporting Kansas City vs Austin Major League Soccer prediction & result

Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City
Referee: Ricardo Fierro
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Sporting Kansas City 1-2 Austin.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Sporting Kansas City, 24% draw, 38% Austin — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sporting Kansas City at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sporting Kansas City0%Draw5%Austin95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Kwaku Agyabeng
21'
32'
🔁Ervin Torresout: Besard Sabovic
37'
Mikkel Desler
Jacob Davis
37'
🔁Osvaldo Pedro Capembaout: Calvin Harris
45'
Stephen Afrifa
46'
51'
Ilie Sánchez
Zorhan Bassong
52'
⚽Stephen Afrifaassist: André Luiz
55'
64'
⚽Myrto Uzuni
🔁Taylor Calheiraout: Ruben Ramos Jr
68'
71'
🔁Mikkel Deslerout: Przemyslaw Płacheta
🔁Zorhan Bassongout: Jacob Bartlett
74'
🔁André Luizout: Owen Wolff
74'
76'
🔁Brandon Vazquezout: Christian Ramirez
86'
⚽Myrto Uzuni
🔁Kwaku Agyabengout: Shapi Suleymanov
90'
Owen Wolff
90+5'

Match stats — Sporting Kansas City vs Austin

44%Possession56%
19Shots13
5On target8
2Corners5
1.53xG1.8

Goals against chances

Sporting Kansas City1 from 1.53 xGless than the chances were worth
Austin2 from 1.80 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2
  • 30S. ClevelandG
  • 8J. DavisD
  • 15Jansen MillerD
  • 28Wyatt MeyerD
  • 18E. KarićD
  • 11André LuizM
  • 20K. AgyabengM
  • 22Z. BassongM
  • 7CapitaM
  • 19T. CalheiraF
  • 17S. AfrifaF
Substitutes
  • 93M. SuleymanovF
  • 99J. ReidD
  • 24R. RamosF
  • 1J. PulskampG
  • 2I. JamesD
  • 23E. BartlowD
  • 33O. WolffM
  • 14C. HarrisF
  • 16J. BartlettD
Coach: R. Wicky
Austin 3-4-3
  • 12D. LasG
  • 3M. DeslerD
  • 6Ilie SánchezD
  • 29Guilherme BiroD
  • 30J. RosalesM
  • 38Ervin TorresM
  • 24Jorge AlastueyM
  • 17J. GallagherM
  • 10M. UzuniF
  • 9B. VázquezF
  • 11F. TorresF
Substitutes
  • 21C. RamirezF
  • 4B. Hines-IkeD
  • 14B. ŠabovićM
  • 1B. StuverG
  • 5O. SvatokD
  • 77P. PłachetaM
  • 32M. BurtonM
  • 35M. ĐorđevićD
Coach: D. Arnaud

Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs Austin

Sporting Kansas City

Major League Soccer

  • L1-3Real Salt Lake18 October 2026

Austin

Major League Soccer

  • L1-2Vancouver Whitecaps18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Sporting Kansas City3475224081-4126
14Austin34810164265-2334

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs Austin

  • 17 May 2026Austin 1–2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 14 February 2026Sporting Kansas City 2–0 AustinFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 September 2025Sporting Kansas City 1–2 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 23 February 2025Austin 1–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 30 June 2024Sporting Kansas City 2–0 AustinMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Austin won 2–1 at Sporting Kansas City. The goals: Stephen Afrifa 55' for Sporting Kansas City, Myrto Uzuni 64' for Austin, Myrto Uzuni 86' for Austin. On expected goals it finished 1.53–1.80.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Austin a 76.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 62.3% after a win, 80.1% after a draw, 91.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.3%, 14.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sporting Kansas City v Austin has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 39% / 25% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 24% / 38%: the biggest move is Austin's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Sporting Kansas City win38%▼ −1
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. Austin win38%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.