25 October 2026, 02:30 UTC

Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City Major League Soccer prediction & result

America First Field, Sandy
Referee: Drew Fischer
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Real Salt Lake 3-0 St. Louis City.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Real Salt Lake, 25% draw, 43% St. Louis City — fair odds of 3.13, 4.00 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St. Louis City at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Salt Lake99%Draw1%St. Louis City0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
Rafael Santos
29'
Tomas Ostrak
Philip Quinton
40'
⚽Sergi Solansassist: Morgan Guilavogui
41'
43'
Tomas Ostrak
45'
🔁Christopher Durkinout: Dante Polvara
45'
🔁Conrad Wallemout: Mykhi Joyner
⚽Dominik Marczukassist: Luc De Fougerolles
52'
⚽Sergi Solansassist: Saba Lobjanidze
59'
🔁Philip Quintonout: Justen Glad
60'
Juan Sanabria
64'
🔁Morgan Guilavoguiout: Chadwick Zachary Booth
67'
🔁Noel Caliskanout: Colin Guske
67'
🔁Sergi Solansout: Ariath Piol
68'
71'
🔁Charles-Emile Brunetout: Daniel Edelman
71'
🔁Simon Becherout: Damion Downs
🔁Saba Lobjanidzeout: Aiden Hezarkhani
80'
84'
🔁Rafael Navarro Lealout: Mamadou Mbacke

Match stats — Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City

60%Possession40%
20Shots3
8On target2
7Corners0
4.1xG0.17

Goals against chances

Real Salt Lake3 from 4.10 xGless than the chances were worth
St. Louis City0 from 0.17 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Real Salt Lake 5-4-1
  • 1Rafael CabralG
  • 11D. MarczukD
  • 44L. De FougerollesD
  • 26P. QuintonD
  • 3K. HenryD
  • 8J. SanabriaD
  • 12S. LobzhanidzeM
  • 6S. SpieringsM
  • 92N. CaliskanM
  • 9M. GuilavoguiM
  • 22S. SolansF
Substitutes
  • 39A. HezarkhaniF
  • 25Colin GuskeM
  • 23Chadwick Zachary BoothM
  • 29S. JunquaD
  • 98A. KatránisD
  • 19A. PiolF
  • 31M. StajduharG
  • 2D. YedlinD
  • 15J. GladD
Coach: P. Mastroeni
St. Louis City 3-4-3
  • 39B. LundtG
  • 99J. OrozcoD
  • 32T. BaumgartlD
  • 27F. FallD
  • 6C. WallemM
  • 18C. BrunetM
  • 8C. DurkinM
  • 20Rafael SantosM
  • 7T. OstrákF
  • 9Rafael NavarroF
  • 11S. BecherF
Substitutes
  • 4M. FallD
  • 19C. HolseF
  • 77Jeong Sang-BinF
  • 59M. JoynerM
  • 5L. MacNaughtonD
  • 31C. OlivaresG
  • 24D. EdelmanM
  • 42D. DownsF
  • 21D. PolvaraM
Coach: Y. Damet

Form going into Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City

Real Salt Lake

Major League Soccer

  • W3-1away to Sporting Kansas City18 October 2026

St. Louis City

Major League Soccer

  • L2-3away to Minnesota United FC17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Real Salt Lake34136155352+145
3St. Louis City34159105948+1154

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City

  • 2 August 2026St. Louis City 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
  • 19 October 2025St. Louis City 2–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
  • 6 July 2025Real Salt Lake 3–2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 5 February 2025St. Louis City 1–1 Real Salt LakeFriendlies Clubs
  • 31 March 2024Real Salt Lake 3–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 25 February 2024St. Louis City 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Real Salt Lake and St. Louis City

Real Salt Lake

GoalsAssists

  • S. Solans154

St. Louis City

GoalsAssists

  • Rafael Navarro196

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Real Salt Lake beat St. Louis City 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for St. Louis City at 43% and given a win for Real Salt Lake 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Sergi Solans 41' for Real Salt Lake, Dominik Marczuk 52' for Real Salt Lake, Sergi Solans 59' for Real Salt Lake. Sent off: Tomas Ostrak (St. Louis City) 43'. On expected goals it finished 4.10–0.17.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Real Salt Lake a 35.9% chance to finish in the top nine: 56.2% after a win, 32.2% after a draw, 21.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.2%, 20.3 points higher than before the match.

For St. Louis City the question was the chance to finish top of the Western Conference, 7.4% going in: 13.0% after a win, 3.4% after a draw, 1.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 1.9%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.