Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Colorado Rapids 1-0 Vancouver Whitecaps.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Colorado Rapids, 28% draw, 44% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Vancouver Whitecaps at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41N. DefreitasG
- 33K. ThompsonD
- 6R. HoldingD
- 24N. CobbD
- 29M. NavarroD
- 8H. OjediranM
- 10P. AaronsonM
- 12J. AtencioM
- 13W. Frederick IIM
- 93G. MinoungouM
- 7M. WhittakerF
- 31A. BeaudryG
- 16A. HarrisF
- 21T. Ku-DiPietroM
- 32D. PhillipF
- 2K. RosenberryD
- 99J. TravisD
- 5Loïc WilliamsD
- 77D. YapiF
- 9S. AbuF
- 1Y. TakaokaG
- 18É. OcampoD
- 33T. BlackmonD
- 6R. PrisoD
- 28T. JohnsonD
- 8O. LarrazM
- 20A. CubasM
- 11E. SabbiM
- 25R. GauldM
- 77Y. DiabyM
- 24B. WhiteF
- 14Bruno Steven Caicedo QuiñonezF
- 23A. CvetkovićM
- 19R. ElloumiF
- 29M. GherasimencovD
- 2M. LabordaD
- 63Johnny SelemaniF
- 4R. VeselinovićD
- 32I. BoehmerG
- 59J. BadwalM
Form going into Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Colorado Rapids
Major League Soccer
- D0-0away to Portland Timbers18 October 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
Major League Soccer
- W2-1away to Austin18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Colorado Rapids | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 43 |
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 74 | 34 | +40 | 64 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps
- 26 April 2026Vancouver Whitecaps 3–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2025Colorado Rapids 3–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 6 April 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 2–0 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 2 June 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 16 May 2024Colorado Rapids 1–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 28 September 2023Colorado Rapids 2–2 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Colorado Rapids and Vancouver Whitecaps
Colorado Rapids
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 47 league goals as a side.
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White202
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Colorado Rapids beat Vancouver Whitecaps 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Vancouver Whitecaps at 44% and given a win for Colorado Rapids 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Morgan Whittaker 81' for Colorado Rapids. On expected goals it finished 1.94–0.31.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Colorado Rapids a 67.7% chance to finish in the top nine: 89.4% after a win, 68.7% after a draw, 54.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 89.4%, 21.7 points higher than before the match.
For Vancouver Whitecaps the question was the chance to finish top of the Western Conference, 86.1% going in: 95.2% after a win, 83.1% after a draw, 74.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 74.6%, 11.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.