12 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys Super League prediction & result

AIL Arena, Lugano
Full time2 – 2

Final score: FC Lugano 2-2 BSC Young Boys.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% FC Lugano, 27% draw, 27% BSC Young Boys — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Lugano at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Lugano5%Draw92%BSC Young Boys3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Daniel Dos Santos Correiaassist: Antonios Papadopoulos
2'
🔁Renato Steffenout: Elias Pihlstrom
21'
28'
⚽Samuel Essendeassist: Christian Fassnacht
45'
⚽Christian Fassnacht
🔁David von Ballmoosout: Felix Gebhard
45'
45'
🔁Isaac Schmidtout: Lewin Blum
Lars Lukas Mai
49'
61'
Sandro Lauper
Antonios Papadopoulos
62'
65'
🔁Alan Virginiusout: Bahereba Guirassy
🔁Lars Lukas Maiout: Albian Ajeti
67'
🔁Yanis Cimignaniout: Ezdjan Alijoski
68'
Daniel Dos Santos Correia
75'
⚽Albian Ajetiassist: Dereck Moncada
80'
81'
🔁Samuel Essendeout: Mamadou Kaly·Sene
86'
🔁Sandro Lauperout: Moritz Jenz
86'
🔁Armin Gigovicout: Dominik Pech
🔁Dereck Moncadaout: Beckham Castro
89'
90+4'
Marvin Keller

Match stats — FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys

59%Possession41%
17Shots14
7On target5
4Corners4

Line-ups

FC Lugano 3-5-2
  • 16D. von BallmoosG
  • 6A. PapadopoulosD
  • 17L. MaiD
  • 3H. DelcroixD
  • 2B. KarimovM
  • 25U. BislimiM
  • 8A. GrgićM
  • 27Daniel Dos SantosM
  • 21Y. CimignaniM
  • 11R. SteffenM
  • 30D. MoncadaF
Substitutes
  • 22B. CastroF
  • 18J. BichselD
  • 7E. AlioskiD
  • 28F. GebhardtG
  • 4D. KelvinD
  • 24E. PihlströmF
  • 14A. KendouciM
  • 9A. AjetiF
  • 23G. AjdinM
Coach: M. Croci-Torti
BSC Young Boys 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. KellerG
  • 22I. SchmidtD
  • 30S. LauperD
  • 23L. BenitoD
  • 33S. BukinacD
  • 8A. GigovićM
  • 6E. FernandesM
  • 16C. FassnachtM
  • 10A. SanchesM
  • 7A. VirginiusM
  • 99S. EssendeF
Substitutes
  • 27L. BlumD
  • 34E. EtoskiM
  • 12Bahereba GuirassyF
  • 17S. JankoD
  • 4M. JenzD
  • 52N. TschanzM
  • 18J. MallG
  • 13D. PechM
  • 9K. SèneF
Coach: G. Seoane

Form going into FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys

FC Lugano

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to FC Basel 18936 September 2026
  • W1-0Servette FC3 September 2026
  • W2-1away to FC Sion30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Maccabi Tel Aviv27 August 2026
  • W2-1Maccabi Tel Aviv20 August 2026

BSC Young Boys

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3FC Luzern5 September 2026
  • W4-2away to FC Zurich1 September 2026
  • D3-3FC Basel 189329 August 2026
  • W4-2FC Vaduz23 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Lausanne8 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Lugano went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Lugano won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • BSC Young Boys went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • BSC Young Boys scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • BSC Young Boys conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1FC Lugano1311113615+2134
2BSC Young Boys138414125+1628

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys

  • 3 May 2026FC Lugano 1–0 BSC Young BoysSuper League
  • 22 March 2026BSC Young Boys 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 21 December 2025FC Lugano 3–0 BSC Young BoysSuper League
  • 31 August 2025BSC Young Boys 3–1 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 24 May 2025FC Lugano 1–1 BSC Young BoysSuper League

Leading scorers: FC Lugano and BSC Young Boys

FC Lugano

GoalsAssists

  • Daniel Dos Santos51
  • D. Moncada51
  • Y. Cimignani40

BSC Young Boys

GoalsAssists

  • S. Essende153
  • C. Fassnacht61
  • A. Sanches44

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Lugano and BSC Young Boys drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Lugano at 46% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Daniel Dos Santos Correia 2' for FC Lugano, Samuel Essende 28' for BSC Young Boys, Christian Fassnacht 45' for BSC Young Boys, Albian Ajeti 80' for FC Lugano.

How the call on FC Lugano v BSC Young Boys has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is FC Lugano's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. FC Lugano win46%▲ +5
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. BSC Young Boys win27%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.