12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Bournemouth vs Brentford Premier League prediction & result

Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Bournemouth 2-2 Brentford.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Bournemouth, 27% draw, 32% Brentford — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bournemouth at 41% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bournemouth5%Draw90%Brentford5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
⚽Kevin Schadeassist: Yehor Yarmoliuk
⚽Justin Kluivert
38'
45+3'
Igor Thiago
Marcus Tavernier
45+4'
⚽Marcus Tavernierassist: Francisco Evanilson
52'
56'
⚽Kevin Schade
60'
🔁Yehor Yarmoliukout: Mikkel Damsgaard
60'
🔁Keane Lewis-Potterout: El Hadji Malick Diouf
60'
🔁Jaidon Anthonyout: Dango Ouattara
James Hill
63'
🔁Justin Kluivertout: Ryan Christie
66'
71'
🔁Aaron Hickeyout: Michael Kayode
🔁Rayan Vitor Simplício Rochaout: Ben Gannon-Doak
82'
🔁Tyler Adamsout: Lewis Cook
82'
🔁Marcus Tavernierout: David Brooks
83'
Lewis Cook
85'
Adam Smith
87'
David Brooks
89'
🔁Francisco Evanilsonout: Álvaro Rodríguez
90+1'

Match stats — Bournemouth vs Brentford

56%Possession44%
20Shots8
10On target2
2Corners1

Line-ups

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
  • 1Đ. PetrovićG
  • 15A. SmithD
  • 5J. HillD
  • 14António SilvaD
  • 3A. TruffertD
  • 12T. AdamsM
  • 8A. ScottM
  • 37RayanM
  • 19J. KluivertM
  • 16M. TavernierM
  • 9EvanilsonF
Substitutes
  • 30Á. RodríguezF
  • 7D. BrooksM
  • 27A. TóthM
  • 11B. DoakF
  • 10R. ChristieM
  • 4L. CookM
  • 18B. DiakitéD
  • 6J. SolerD
  • 20M. Di GregorioG
Coach: M. Rose
Brentford 4-2-3-1
  • 1C. KelleherG
  • 2A. HickeyD
  • 44Jannik SchusterD
  • 20K. AjerD
  • 23K. Lewis-PotterD
  • 18M. SangaréM
  • 27V. JaneltM
  • 19J. AnthonyM
  • 6Y. YarmolyukM
  • 7K. SchadeM
  • 9ThiagoF
Substitutes
  • 39Gustavo GomesF
  • 14Fábio CarvalhoM
  • 13C. WilsonF
  • 24M. DamsgaardM
  • 11D. OuattaraF
  • 33M. KayodeD
  • 25E. DioufD
  • 3R. HenryD
  • 12H. ValdimarssonG
Coach: Keith Andrews

Form going into Bournemouth vs Brentford

Bournemouth

  • D2-2away to Newcastle5 September 2026
  • D1-1Everton29 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Manchester City23 August 2026

Brentford

  • D1-1Sunderland5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Leeds30 August 2026
  • W3-0Tottenham22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Bournemouth403167-13
7Brentford413074+36

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Brentford

  • 12 September 2026Bournemouth 2–2 BrentfordPremier League
  • 3 March 2026Bournemouth 0–0 BrentfordPremier League
  • 27 December 2025Brentford 4–1 BournemouthPremier League
  • 26 August 2025Bournemouth 0–2 BrentfordLeague Cup
  • 15 March 2025Bournemouth 1–2 BrentfordPremier League
  • 9 November 2024Brentford 3–2 BournemouthPremier League

Leading scorers: Bournemouth and Brentford

Bournemouth

  • M. Tavernier3 goals

Brentford

  • K. Schade3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.