Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Aston Villa, 30% draw, 29% Nottingham Forest — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aston Villa at 41% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Line-ups
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 29A. Wan-BissakaD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 14Pau TorresD
- 22I. MaatsenD
- 8B. KamaraM
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 53George HemmingsM
- 11N. JacksonF
- 19I. MbayeF
- 18T. AbrahamF
- 17A. GarnachoF
- 47Alysson EdwardF
- 44J. ManzambiM
- 26L. BogardeM
- 13M. RuggeriD
- 5T. MingsD
- 40M. BizotG
- 26M. SelsG
- 34O. AinaD
- 2O. DiomandeD
- 5MurilloD
- 27D. MuñozM
- 24J. McAteeM
- 21X. SchlagerM
- 3N. WilliamsM
- 14D. NdoyeM
- 10M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 19L. DelapF
- 9C. WoodF
- 15A. KalimuendoF
- 12JohnG
- 25L. NetzD
- 7C. Hudson-OdoiF
- 6I. SangaréM
- 8N. DomínguezM
- 22R. YatesM
- 11Igor JesusF
Form going into Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
- D0-0away to Hull City5 September 2026
- L0-1Arsenal31 August 2026
- L0-4away to Brighton23 August 2026
Nottingham Forest
- D0-0Tottenham5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Liverpool29 August 2026
- L0-1Leeds22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Aston Villa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
| 11 | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
- 12 September 2026Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 7 May 2026Aston Villa 4–0 Nottingham ForestUEFA Europa League
- 30 April 2026Nottingham Forest 1–0 Aston VillaUEFA Europa League
- 12 April 2026Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston VillaPremier League
- 3 January 2026Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 5 April 2025Aston Villa 2–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League