Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Aston Villa, 30% draw, 29% Nottingham Forest — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Aston Villa at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Line-ups
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 29A. Wan-BissakaD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 14Pau TorresD
- 22I. MaatsenD
- 8B. KamaraM
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 53George HemmingsM
- 11N. JacksonF
- 19I. MbayeF
- 18T. AbrahamF
- 17A. GarnachoF
- 47Alysson EdwardF
- 44J. ManzambiM
- 26L. BogardeM
- 13M. RuggeriD
- 5T. MingsD
- 40M. BizotG
- 26M. SelsG
- 34O. AinaD
- 2O. DiomandeD
- 5MurilloD
- 27D. MuñozM
- 24J. McAteeM
- 21X. SchlagerM
- 3N. WilliamsM
- 14D. NdoyeM
- 10M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 19L. DelapF
- 9C. WoodF
- 15A. KalimuendoF
- 12JohnG
- 25L. NetzD
- 7C. Hudson-OdoiF
- 6I. SangaréM
- 8N. DomínguezM
- 22R. YatesM
- 11Igor JesusF
Form going into Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Club Brugge KV8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hull City5 September 2026
- L0-1Arsenal31 August 2026
- L0-4away to Brighton23 August 2026
Nottingham Forest
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Tottenham5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Liverpool29 August 2026
- L0-1Leeds22 August 2026
What these results say
- Aston Villa failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aston Villa failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aston Villa conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 13 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
- 7 May 2026Aston Villa 4–0 Nottingham ForestUEFA Europa League
- 30 April 2026Nottingham Forest 1–0 Aston VillaUEFA Europa League
- 12 April 2026Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston VillaPremier League
- 3 January 2026Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 5 April 2025Aston Villa 2–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
Leading scorers: Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
GoalsAssists
- N. Jackson61
Nottingham Forest
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Nottingham Forest won 2–1 at Aston Villa. The model had leaned towards a win for Aston Villa at 41% and given a win for Nottingham Forest 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Liam Delap 46' for Nottingham Forest, Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha 74' for Aston Villa, Igor Jesus 88' for Nottingham Forest.
How the call on Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is Nottingham Forest's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Aston Villa win41%=
- Draw30%▲ +2
- Nottingham Forest win29%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.