FC Lugano
vs
FC St. Gallen
Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Lugano 4-1 FC St. Gallen.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% FC Lugano, 28% draw, 25% FC St. Gallen — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Lugano 1.81, FC St. Gallen 1.01.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: FC Lugano vs FC St. Gallen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 47% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Lugano vs FC St. Gallen
Line-ups
- 28F. GebhardtG
- 6A. PapadopoulosD
- 17L. MaiD
- 18J. BichselD
- 2B. KarimovM
- 25U. BislimiM
- 8A. GrgićM
- 27Daniel Dos SantosM
- 21Y. CimignaniM
- 22B. CastroF
- 24E. PihlströmF
- 9A. AjetiF
- 23G. AjdinM
- 7E. AlioskiD
- 3H. DelcroixD
- 4D. KelvinD
- 14A. KendouciM
- 30D. MoncadaF
- 39C. NdiayeG
- 46M. ZanottiD
- 1L. ZigiG
- 3C. Kleine-BekelD
- 4J. StanićD
- 36C. OkorojiD
- 10L. DaschnerM
- 74J. RuizM
- 64M. StevanovicM
- 11C. BoukhalfaM
- 7C. WitzigM
- 70N. ScherrerF
- 14A. BaldeF
- 28H. VandermerschD
- 47E. OwusuM
- 9A. HunzikerF
- 68M. HeydariD
- 26T. GaalD
- 23B. FazlijiM
- 31D. BesioF
- 25L. WatkowiakG
Form going into FC Lugano vs FC St. Gallen
FC Lugano
- D2-2BSC Young Boys12 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Basel 18936 September 2026
- W1-0Servette FC3 September 2026
- W2-1away to FC Sion30 August 2026
FC St. Gallen
- L0-3FC Sion12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Servette FC6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Grasshoppers2 September 2026
- L3-4FC Thun30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 22 |
| 6 | FC St. Gallen | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs FC St. Gallen
- 10 May 2026FC Lugano 1–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 17 March 2026FC St. Gallen 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 26 November 2025FC Lugano 1–3 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 13 September 2025FC St. Gallen 1–0 FC LuganoSuper League
- 13 April 2025FC Lugano 1–1 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 5 February 2025FC St. Gallen 2–1 FC LuganoSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and FC St. Gallen
FC Lugano
- D. Moncada3 goals1 assists
- Y. Cimignani3 goals
FC St. Gallen
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.81 goals for FC Lugano and 1.01 for FC St. Gallen; the game produced 4 and 1.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Beckham Castro 4' (FC Lugano), Elias Pihlstrom 14' (FC Lugano), Elias Pihlstrom 28' (FC Lugano), Behruzjon Karimov 36' (FC Lugano), Andrin Hunziker 74' (FC St. Gallen).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Lugano the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for FC Lugano against 1.01 for FC St. Gallen. FC Lugano's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.43 for FC St. Gallen.