FC Thun
vs
Servette FC
Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Thun 2-4 Servette FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% FC Thun, 30% draw, 32% Servette FC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Thun 1.32, Servette FC 1.14.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: FC Thun vs Servette FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Thun at 38% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Thun vs Servette FC
Line-ups
- 1N. SteffenG
- 47F. FehrD
- 5N. BürgyD
- 19J. BamertD
- 18T. StrannegårdD
- 70N. ReichmuthM
- 16J. RothM
- 13N. ZoukitM
- 8F. SaizM
- 96B. LabeauF
- 26N. ChristofferssonF
- 25T. SpycherG
- 15P. KristalM
- 37L. DählerD
- 9F. DursunF
- 14M. KäitM
- 80S. LengenF
- 30N. MaierM
- 2O. MambwaD
- 54L. PassavantD
- 1E. GertmonasG
- 17Houboulang MendesD
- 34T. AllixD
- 15M. BurchD
- 18B. MazikouD
- 28D. DoulineM
- 22M. LambourdeM
- 9M. StevanovićM
- 20Jarell Njike SimoM
- 14L. NjohM
- 7K. MutandwaF
- 37Sylvain Claude Djoho FilhoD
- 27D. FofanaF
- 42Ivan IzquierdoM
- 21J. KarlssonF
- 36Thomas LopesM
- 23Q. MaceirasD
- 41T. NunezF
- 44Louis RiederG
- 39Eronis HaxhiuM
Form going into FC Thun vs Servette FC
FC Thun
- L0-1Grasshoppers12 September 2026
- L2-3away to FC Sion6 September 2026
- D0-0Lausanne2 September 2026
- W4-3away to FC St. Gallen30 August 2026
Servette FC
- W1-0away to Lausanne13 September 2026
- L0-2FC St. Gallen6 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Lugano3 September 2026
- D1-1FC Luzern29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FC Thun | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 7 |
| 5 | Servette FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Thun vs Servette FC
- 8 February 2026Servette FC 1–3 FC ThunSuper League
- 8 November 2025Servette FC 0–1 FC ThunSuper League
- 18 October 2025FC Thun 3–1 Servette FCSuper League
- 27 October 2021FC Thun 4–1 Servette FCSchweizer Cup
- 22 July 2020FC Thun 5–1 Servette FCSuper League
- 2 February 2020Servette FC 2–0 FC ThunSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Thun and Servette FC
FC Thun
- B. Labeau3 goals
Servette FC
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.32 goals for FC Thun and 1.14 for Servette FC; the game produced 2 and 4.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Kingstone Mutandwa 4' (Servette FC), Mathis Lambourde 29' (Servette FC), fabio saiz 38' (FC Thun), fabio saiz 54' (FC Thun), Teo Allix 65' (Servette FC), David Datro Fofana 86' (Servette FC).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Thun the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for FC Thun against 1.14 for Servette FC. FC Thun's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.31 for Servette FC.