Baltika
vs
Zenit
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Baltika 2-3 Zenit.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Baltika, 27% draw, 36% Zenit — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Baltika 1.72, Zenit 1.65.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Baltika vs Zenit
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Baltika at 37% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Baltika vs Zenit
Line-ups
- 1E. LatyshonokG
- 19M. ShnaptsevD
- 2S. VaratynovD
- 24L. MouyokoloD
- 4N. GassamaD
- 22M. BeveevD
- 73M. PetrovM
- 8A. MendelM
- 5A. MouridM
- 7K. ShiltsovM
- 91B. GilF
- 69E. GolenkovF
- 26I. BelikovM
- 3I. KirschD
- 81I. KukushkinG
- 44E. LyubakovG
- 9C. OfforF
- 10I. PetrovM
- 11I. PorokhovF
- 42V. PospelovM
- 16D. AdamovG
- 31Gustavo MantuanD
- 78I. DiveevD
- 25K. AndradeD
- 3Douglas SantosD
- 5W. BarriosM
- 93A. KarpukasM
- 10M. GlushenkovM
- 20Pedro HenriqueM
- 11Luiz HenriqueM
- 7A. SobolevF
- 9Felipe AugustoF
- 82S. VolkovD
- 66R. VegaD
- 51V. ShilovF
- 71D. OdoevskiyG
- 38Amir MusaevM
- 57B. MoskvichevG
- 61D. KondakovM
- 15V. KaravaevD
Form going into Baltika vs Zenit
Baltika
- D2-2away to Fakel12 September 2026
- L0-1Lokomotiv6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Rodina Moskva30 August 2026
- D1-1Rubin24 August 2026
Zenit
- W2-1Lokomotiv12 September 2026
- L1-2CSKA Moscow5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Fakel29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Spartak Moscow23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Baltika | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 11 |
| 3 | Zenit | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Baltika vs Zenit
- 5 August 2026Zenit 1–0 BaltikaCup
- 3 March 2026Baltika 0–1 ZenitCup
- 27 February 2026Zenit 1–0 BaltikaPremier League
- 14 September 2025Baltika 0–0 ZenitPremier League
- 2 June 2024Baltika 1–2 ZenitCup
- 7 April 2024Zenit Saint Petersburg 1–0 BaltikaPremier League
Leading scorers: Baltika and Zenit
Baltika
- B. Gil3 goals1 assists
Zenit
- A. Sobolev6 goals1 assists
- M. Glushenkov5 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.72 goals for Baltika and 1.65 for Zenit; the game produced 2 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Maksim Glushenkov 9' (Zenit), Aleksandr Sobolev 16' (Zenit), Brayan Gil 22' (Baltika), Luiz Henrique 49' (Zenit), Ilya Petrov 81' (Baltika).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Baltika the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Baltika against 1.65 for Zenit. Baltika's attack/defence rating is 0.61/2.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.73 for Zenit.