Baltika vs Zenit Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Baltika 2-3 Zenit.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Baltika, 28% draw, 31% Zenit — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Baltika at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Baltika vs Zenit
Line-ups
- 1E. LatyshonokG
- 19M. ShnaptsevD
- 2S. VaratynovD
- 24L. MouyokoloD
- 4N. GassamaD
- 22M. BeveevD
- 73M. PetrovM
- 8A. MendelM
- 5A. MouridM
- 7K. ShiltsovM
- 91B. GilF
- 69E. GolenkovF
- 26I. BelikovM
- 3I. KirschD
- 81I. KukushkinG
- 44E. LyubakovG
- 9C. OfforF
- 10I. PetrovM
- 11I. PorokhovF
- 42V. PospelovM
- 16D. AdamovG
- 31Gustavo MantuanD
- 78I. DiveevD
- 25K. AndradeD
- 3Douglas SantosD
- 5W. BarriosM
- 93A. KarpukasM
- 10M. GlushenkovM
- 20Pedro HenriqueM
- 11Luiz HenriqueM
- 7A. SobolevF
- 9Felipe AugustoF
- 82S. VolkovD
- 66R. VegaD
- 51V. ShilovF
- 71D. OdoevskiyG
- 38Amir MusaevM
- 57B. MoskvichevG
- 61D. KondakovM
- 15V. KaravaevD
Form going into Baltika vs Zenit
Baltika
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Fakel12 September 2026
- L0-1Lokomotiv6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Rodina Moskva30 August 2026
- D1-1Rubin24 August 2026
- L1-2Spartak Moscow16 August 2026
Zenit
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Lokomotiv12 September 2026
- L1-2CSKA Moscow5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Fakel29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Spartak Moscow23 August 2026
- W3-0Dynamo16 August 2026
What these results say
- Baltika failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baltika scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baltika conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zenit scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Baltika | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 17 |
| 1 | Zenit | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 15 | +17 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Baltika vs Zenit
- 5 August 2026Zenit 1–0 BaltikaCup
- 3 March 2026Baltika 0–1 ZenitCup
- 27 February 2026Zenit 1–0 BaltikaPremier League
- 14 September 2025Baltika 0–0 ZenitPremier League
- 2 June 2024Baltika 1–2 ZenitCup
Leading scorers: Baltika and Zenit
Baltika
GoalsAssists
- B. Gil51
Zenit
GoalsAssists
- M. Glushenkov105
- A. Sobolev102
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Zenit won 3–2 at Baltika. The model had leaned towards a win for Baltika at 41% and given a win for Zenit 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Maksim Glushenkov 9' for Zenit, Aleksandr Sobolev 16' for Zenit, Brayan Gil 22' for Baltika, Luiz Henrique 49' for Zenit, Ilya Petrov 81' for Baltika.
How the call on Baltika v Zenit has moved
First published on 2 Sep at 35% / 30% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Baltika's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Baltika win41%▲ +6
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Zenit win31%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.