2 September 2026, 18:30 UTC

FC Luzern vs FC Vaduz Super League prediction & result

Thermoplan Arena, Luzern
Full time2 – 1

Final score: FC Luzern 2-1 FC Vaduz.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% FC Luzern, 27% draw, 31% FC Vaduz — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Luzern at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Luzern5%Draw91%FC Vaduz4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Bung Hua Freimann
3'
Andrejs Cigaņiks
38'
38'
Denis Simani
46'
⚽J. Starkassist: L. Dalipi
48'
Marcel Monsberger
Rúben Dantas
49'
🔁F. Bongeliout: N. Toggenburger
57'
🔁T. Owusuout: S. Wyss
57'
⚽R. Dantas Fernandes
59'
62'
🔁M. Cocicout: D. Kasper
•Nando Toggenburger
66'
🔁M. Zimmermannout: L. Silva
73'
73'
🔁D. Schwizerout: M. Sawadogo
73'
🔁M. Monsbergerout: D. Djokic
🔁R. Dantas Fernandesout: L. Luthi
82'
🔁D. Mikolajewskiout: S. Meyer
82'
Bung Meng Freimann
83'
88'
Dejan Đokić
Nando Toggenburger
90+4'
90+4'
Liridon Berisha
90'
🔁L. Mackout: M. Walker
⚽N. Toggenburger
90'

Match stats — FC Luzern vs FC Vaduz

43%Possession57%
23Shots9
8On target4
3Corners4

Line-ups

FC Luzern 4-4-2
  • 30K. LeticaG
  • 22R. Dantas FernandesD
  • 13B. H. Freimann
  • 46B. FreimannD
  • 14A. CiganiksD
  • 24T. OwusuM
  • 80M. Zimmermann
  • 6L. BertoneM
  • 11M. Di GiustoM
  • 19D. MikolajewskiF
  • 18F. Bongeli
Substitutes
  • 1S. SimoniG
  • 5S. KnezevicD
  • 21L. LuthiD
  • 29L. WinklerM
  • 10L. SilvaM
  • 7A. OehlersF
  • 15N. ToggenburgerF
  • 71S. MeyerF
  • 17S. Wyss
Coach: Jorg Portmann
FC Vaduz 4-3-1-2
  • 25L. SchaffranG
  • 4N. HaslerD
  • 6D. SimaniD
  • 5L. BerishaD
  • 7D. Schwizer
  • 17J. StarkM
  • 20L. MackM
  • 10J. CabreraM
  • 28M. CocicM
  • 11L. DalipiF
  • 9M. MonsbergerF
Substitutes
  • 1B. BuchelG
  • 27N. LangD
  • 14M. BeeliD
  • 29M. SawadogoD
  • 22M. EberhardM
  • 30M. WalkerM
  • 23M. HammerichM
  • 19D. DjokicF
  • 18D. KasperF
Coach: Marc Schneider

Form going into FC Luzern vs FC Vaduz

FC Luzern

  • D1-1away to Servette FC29 August 2026
  • W1-0Lausanne22 August 2026

FC Vaduz

  • W5-2Grasshoppers30 August 2026
  • L2-4away to BSC Young Boys23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8FC Luzern82331217-59
11FC Vaduz82061719-26

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Luzern vs FC Vaduz

  • 2 September 2026FC Luzern 2–1 FC VaduzSuper League
  • 6 September 2024FC Vaduz 1–0 FC LuzernFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 July 2022FC Luzern 4–1 FC VaduzFriendlies Clubs
  • 1 May 2021FC Vaduz 1–2 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 24 February 2021FC Vaduz 1–1 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 14 February 2021FC Luzern 4–0 FC VaduzSuper League

Leading scorers: FC Luzern and FC Vaduz

FC Luzern

  • M. Di Giusto3 goals1 assists
  • A. Cigaņiks3 goals

FC Vaduz

  • Juan Cabrera4 goals
  • L. Dalipi3 goals7 assists
  • M. Monsberger3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.