FC Luzern vs Lausanne Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Luzern 1-0 Lausanne.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% FC Luzern, 25% draw, 35% Lausanne — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Luzern at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Luzern vs Lausanne
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Karlo LeticaG
- 20Pius DornD
- 13Bung Hua FreimannD
- 46Bung Meng FreimannD
- 14Andrejs CigaņiksD
- 24Tyron OwusuM
- 80Mio ZimmermannM
- 6Leonardo BertoneM
- 11Matteo Di GiustoM
- 16Oscar KabwitF
- 19Daniel MikołajewskiF
- 10Lucas SilvaM
- 5Stefan KneževićD
- 71Sascha MeyerF
- 17Sandro WyssF
- 15Nando ToggenburgerF
- 1Simon SimoniG
- 22Rúben DantasD
- 21Loïc LüthiD
- 29Levin WinklerM
- 90Melvin MastilG
- 2Brandon SoppyD
- 3Tyler FredricsonD
- 71Abdou Karim SowD
- 18Morgan PoatyD
- 8Jamie RocheM
- 10Olivier CustodioM
- 11Nathan Butler-OyedejiM
- 80Sekou KoneM
- 91Florent MolletM
- 78Omar JannehF
- 5Dircssi NgonzoD
- 9Enzo MolebeF
- 17Seydou TraoreF
- 47Papa Souleymane N'DiayeM
- 7Alban AjdiniF
- 1Thomas CastellaG
- 22Thomas CordierD
- 6Theo BergvallD
- 20Hamza AbdallahD
Form going into FC Luzern vs Lausanne
FC Luzern
- D2-2away to FC St. Gallen9 August 2026
- L0-3away to FC Sion2 August 2026
- L1-3FC Thun25 July 2026
Lausanne
- D2-2BSC Young Boys8 August 2026
- W1-0away to FC Basel 18931 August 2026
- D1-1Grasshoppers25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC Luzern | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Luzern vs Lausanne
- 22 August 2026FC Luzern 1–0 LausanneSuper League
- 2 May 2026Lausanne 1–3 FC LuzernSuper League
- 22 March 2026FC Luzern 4–0 LausanneSuper League
- 21 December 2025Lausanne 0–4 FC LuzernSuper League
- 19 October 2025FC Luzern 2–2 LausanneSuper League
- 11 May 2025FC Luzern 1–1 LausanneSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Luzern and Lausanne
FC Luzern
- M. Di Giusto3 goals1 assists
- A. Cigaņiks3 goals
Lausanne
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.