22 August 2026, 16:45 UTC

Dundee United vs Dundee Premiership prediction & result

Tannadice Park, Dundee
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Dundee United 0-2 Dundee.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Dundee United, 26% draw, 34% Dundee — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dundee United at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dundee United0%Draw1%Dundee99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

43'
⚽D. Wright
45+4'
Ryan Finnigan
🔁J. Randallout: D. Bennie
46'
46'
🔁C. Reillyout: F. Robertson
Daniel Bennie
54'
57'
⚽O. Bevanassist: A. Forrest
Abdoulaye Yoro
59'
🔁M. Merghemout: N. Farrugia
60'
🔁I. Metsokoout: Z. Sapsford
60'
🔁A. Yoroout: L. Rose
68'
68'
🔁J. Bevanout: B. Fink
78'
Owen Bevan
80'
🔁A. Forrestout: B. Wales
Vicko Ševelj
86'
Dylan Tait
88'
88'
Ethan Hamilton
90+1'
🔁J. Westleyout: B. Halliday

Match stats — Dundee United vs Dundee

68%Possession32%
23Shots14
5On target4
6Corners5
1.24xG1.61

Goals against chances

Dundee United0 from 1.24 xGless than the chances were worth
Dundee2 from 1.61 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dundee United 4-3-3
  • 1J. WaltonG
  • 5V. SeveljD
  • 3B. EsselinkD
  • 18M. ForbesD
  • 11W. FerryD
  • 10D. TaitM
  • 8P. CamaraM
  • 26A. YoroM
  • 7M. MerghemF
  • 93I. MetsokoF
  • 21J. RandallF
Substitutes
  • 30J. AmissahG
  • 6R. GrahamD
  • 23J. RawlinsD
  • 4I. IovuD
  • 19K. CiubotaruD
  • 20N. FarrugiaF
  • 15L. RoseF
  • 77D. BennieF
  • 9Z. SapsfordM
Coach: Jim Goodwin
Dundee 4-2-3-1
  • 1O. GoodmanG
  • 7D. WrightD
  • 4R. AstleyD
  • 5O. Bevan
  • 3I. OdutayoD
  • 8R. FinniganM
  • 48E. HamiltonM
  • 27J. BevanM
  • 18C. ReillyM
  • 14A. ForrestM
  • 19J. WestleyF
Substitutes
  • 13K. O'HaraG
  • 2B. HallidayD
  • 52C. OosenbrughD
  • 17Z. BesirM
  • 28C. JonesM
  • 10F. Robertson
  • 58E. CrombieM
  • 21B. FinkD
  • 9B. WalesF
Coach: Steven Pressley

Form going into Dundee United vs Dundee

Dundee United

  • L0-4away to Heart of Midlothian9 August 2026

Dundee

  • W2-0Aberdeen8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Dundee United6123611-55
6Dundee621376+17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dundee United vs Dundee

  • 22 August 2026Dundee United 0–2 DundeePremiership
  • 26 April 2026Dundee United 3–0 DundeePremiership
  • 15 March 2026Dundee 2–2 Dundee UnitedPremiership
  • 3 January 2026Dundee United 0–1 DundeePremiership
  • 31 August 2025Dundee 0–2 Dundee UnitedPremiership
  • 16 March 2025Dundee United 2–4 DundeePremiership

Leading scorers: Dundee United and Dundee

Dundee United

  • J. Randall1 goals1 assists

Dundee

  • J. Westley2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.