FC OSS vs Helmond Sport Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: FC OSS 3-1 Helmond Sport.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% FC OSS, 29% draw, 26% Helmond Sport — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC OSS at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC OSS vs Helmond Sport
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. HavekotteG
- 2I. PataD
- 3L. MiguelD
- 23D. VianelloD
- 26Julian KuijpersD
- 10R. van der VenneM
- 8M. EsajasM
- 11J. MathieuM
- 18K. LubranoF
- 19F. NsingiF
- 17M. HinokeF
- 24Jay KuiperD
- 25J. PansaF
- 16D. RemieG
- 9Andy VisserF
- 33L. ZonneveldD
- 27M. de LannoyF
- 5Jafar Howard BynoeM
- 21Thomas CoxD
- 12A. HenryD
- 1M. BergsenG
- 20S. DekkersD
- 4B. KoglinD
- 43T. LandheerD
- 5T. PollD
- 11L. CiceroM
- 6M. LudwigM
- 44Xander van der VeldeM
- 19H. IngasonM
- 9L. BajramiF
- 94Mauro LenaertsF
- 21Wessel van der HeijdenG
- 2R. van BreeD
- 3F. Van Den EyndenD
- 31N. MeissnerF
- 10D. HuibertsM
- 14Lovro GoličD
- 47Dayen GeertsM
- 23A. El MaachG
- 30K. EkoliF
Form going into FC OSS vs Helmond Sport
FC OSS
All competitions we cover
- W4-1MVV3 October 2026
Helmond Sport
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Heracles2 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | FC OSS | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 17 |
| 18 | Helmond Sport | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 37 | -11 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC OSS vs Helmond Sport
- 6 March 2026Helmond Sport 1–1 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 31 October 2025FC OSS 0–3 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 2 February 2025FC OSS 1–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 16 September 2024Helmond Sport 1–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 15 March 2024FC OSS 1–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 15 September 2023Helmond Sport 1–1 FC OSSEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: FC OSS and Helmond Sport
FC OSS
GoalsAssists
- M. Hinoke60
Helmond Sport
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC OSS beat Helmond Sport 3–1. The model had made a win for FC OSS its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Mauresmo Hinoke 25' for FC OSS, Michel Simon Ludwig 33' for Helmond Sport, Mauresmo Hinoke 37' for FC OSS, Maurilio de Lannoy 86' for FC OSS. On expected goals it finished 2.79–1.48.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC OSS a 21.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 17.7% after a win, 24.0% after a draw, 25.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.7%, 3.9 points lower than before the match.
For Helmond Sport the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 29.4% going in: 21.9% after a win, 27.7% after a draw, 33.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.4%, 4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC OSS v Helmond Sport has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is FC OSS's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- FC OSS win45%▲ +5
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Helmond Sport win26%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.