9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Roda vs Jong PSV U21 Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Roda 1-1 Jong PSV U21.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Roda, 32% draw, 24% Jong PSV U21 — fair odds of 2.27, 3.13 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Roda at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Roda4%Draw94%Jong PSV U212%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Bram Marsmanout: Cain Seedorf
45'
🔁X. van den Bergout: Mitchel Paulissen
45'
🔁Koen Jansenout: Rayan Khoums
66'
🔁Dario Van Den Buijsout: Joey Sleegers
66'
71'
🔁Lyfe Oldenstamout: Kyano Penso
71'
🔁Samuel Dumbiliout: Jairo Beerens
76'
⚽Austyn Jonesassist: Philip Holseter-Karlsen
🔁Jeremiah Mensahout: Nadir Maoujoudi
80'
82'
⚽Austyn Jones (pen)
⚽Mitchel Paulissen
84'
89'
🔁Rivas Manuhutuout: S Ditmer
89'
🔁Philip Holseter-Karlsenout: Dyran Stam

Match stats — Roda vs Jong PSV U21

52%Possession48%
19Shots7
3On target4
7Corners4
1.54xG1.35

Goals against chances

Roda1 from 1.54 xGless than the chances were worth
Jong PSV U211 from 1.35 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Roda 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. TreichelG
  • 3M. TolD
  • 33D. Van den BuijsD
  • 15L. BeertenD
  • 14X. van den BergM
  • 11D. DorenboschM
  • 4J. NisbetM
  • 5K. JansenM
  • 8J. MensahM
  • 25Bram MarsmanM
  • 9A. van den HurkF
Substitutes
  • 2Luuk VerheijM
  • 7C. SeedorfF
  • 10F. SchentenF
  • 6M. PaulissenM
  • 17Guilherme Martinho PeixotoD
  • 32N. MaoujoudiM
  • 24J. DéomM
  • 19N. CrabuM
  • 20M. BentoumiM
Coach: R. Penders
Jong PSV U21 4-3-3
  • 1T. SmolenaarsG
  • 2L. OldenstamD
  • 3M. BresserD
  • 4F. MeriénD
  • 5M. MonamayD
  • 6B. MuldersM
  • 10P. Holseter-KarlsenM
  • 8S. SidibeM
  • 7S. DumbiliF
  • 9A. JonesF
  • 11R. ManuhutuF
Substitutes
  • 17J. BeerensF
  • 18S DitmerD
  • 16Stijn KuijstenG
  • 23Eskil MoedtG
  • 15K. PensoD
  • 19Givenciyo SabajoM
  • 14D. StamD
Coach: Rens Sleegers

Form going into Roda vs Jong PSV U21

Roda

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to VVV Venlo4 October 2026

Jong PSV U21

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Roda158432118+328
13Jong PSV U21144551822-417

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Roda vs Jong PSV U21

  • 6 March 2026Roda 0–2 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
  • 15 September 2025Jong PSV U21 0–1 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 18 July 2025Jong PSV U21 1–1 RodaFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 March 2025Roda 2–1 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
  • 9 December 2024Jong PSV U21 2–3 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 2 August 2024Jong PSV U21 0–1 RodaFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Roda and Jong PSV U21

Roda

GoalsAssists

  • A. van den Hurk90

Jong PSV U21

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Roda and Jong PSV U21 drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Roda at 44% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Austyn Jones 76' for Jong PSV U21, Mitchel Paulissen 84' for Roda. On expected goals it finished 1.54–1.35.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Roda a 12.4% chance to finish in the top four: 15.1% after a win, 10.4% after a draw, 8.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 10.4%, 2 points lower than before the match.

For Jong PSV U21 the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 11.3% going in: 8.1% after a win, 11.6% after a draw, 12.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 11.6%.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.