9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

NAC Breda vs MVV Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda
Full time1 – 0

Final score: NAC Breda 1-0 MVV.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% NAC Breda, 22% draw, 13% MVV — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

NAC Breda at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NAC Breda98%Draw2%MVV0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Charles-Andreas Brymassist: Gabriel Osei Misehouy
5'
30'
🔁Toni Vinogradacout: Naim Matoug
Jan Van den Bergh
52'
🔁Gabriel Osei Misehouyout: Brahim Ghalidi
53'
60'
🔁Yael Liesdekout: Mika Luijendijk
61'
Robert Klaasen
🔁Jan Van den Berghout: Mylan Brouwers
63'
81'
🔁Noa El Hamdaouiout: Thijme Verheijen
82'
🔁Robert Klaasenout: Delano Asante
🔁Charles-Andreas Brymout: Pepijn Reulen
85'
🔁Maximilien Balardout: Fredrik Jensen
85'
89'
Naim Matoug

Match stats — NAC Breda vs MVV

44%Possession56%
12Shots5
7On target0
2Corners5
0.72xG0.28

Goals against chances

NAC Breda1 from 0.72 xGabout what the chances were worth
MVV0 from 0.28 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NAC Breda 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. VerripsG
  • 2B. LucassenD
  • 4L. GreimlD
  • 22R. HillenD
  • 12J. Van den BerghD
  • 78J. Van HeckeM
  • 6M. BalardM
  • 14K. SowahM
  • 10M. NassohM
  • 28C. BrymM
  • 11G. MisehouyF
Substitutes
  • 35M. BrouwersD
  • 5J. CandelariaD
  • 19P. GladonF
  • 33E. IkpiaF
  • 23R. KortsmitG
  • 31K. LamprouG
  • 34I. NazihM
  • 8F. Oldrup JensenM
  • 26P. ReulenF
Coach: R. Kruijs
MVV 4-4-2
  • 1H. WentgesG
  • 25Yael LiesdekD
  • 6F. DickeD
  • 22Sven BoulandD
  • 17S. WegenD
  • 7L. DaneelsM
  • 18E. SierraM
  • 16R. KlaasenM
  • 24N. El HamdaouiM
  • 9T. VinogradacF
  • 10O. DumontF
Substitutes
  • 31Yanis BourardM
  • 21D. AsanteF
  • 20A. AmgarM
  • 12S. van der HeijdenG
  • 29O. ZimuanganaF
  • 11T. VerheijenF
  • 13S. TimmersG
  • 27Naïm MatougF
  • 19Mika LuijendijkM
Coach: A. Jonker

Form going into NAC Breda vs MVV

NAC Breda

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Vitesse3 October 2026

MVV

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4away to FC OSS3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4NAC Breda158432922+728
8MVV146261929-1020

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NAC Breda vs MVV

  • 29 March 2024NAC Breda 1–2 MVVEerste Divisie
  • 19 November 2023MVV 1–4 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
  • 27 May 2023MVV 1–4 NAC BredaEredivisie
  • 23 May 2023NAC Breda 1–0 MVVEredivisie
  • 10 March 2023NAC Breda 4–1 MVVEerste Divisie
  • 15 August 2022MVV 3–1 NAC BredaEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: NAC Breda and MVV

NAC Breda

GoalsAssists

  • C. Brym90

MVV

GoalsAssists

  • O. Dumont51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NAC Breda beat MVV 1–0. The model had made a win for NAC Breda its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Charles-Andreas Brym 5' for NAC Breda. On expected goals it finished 0.72–0.28.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave NAC Breda a 52.7% chance to finish in the top four: 55.1% after a win, 48.1% after a draw, 43.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.1%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

For MVV the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 23.8% going in: 15.1% after a win, 20.3% after a draw, 25.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.7%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on NAC Breda v MVV has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 56% / 26% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 65% / 22% / 13%: the biggest move is NAC Breda's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. NAC Breda win65%▲ +9
  2. Draw22%▼ −4
  3. MVV win13%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.