9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Jong AZ vs Den Bosch Eerste Divisie prediction & result

AFAS Trainingscomplex, Wijdewormer
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Jong AZ 0-1 Den Bosch.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Jong AZ, 24% draw, 24% Den Bosch — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Jong AZ at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Jong AZ0%Draw6%Den Bosch94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

41'
⚽Hessel Eikelboomassist: Kevin Monzialo
Julian Oerip
43'
45'
🔁Jack de Vriesout: Wang Bohao
🔁Jerolldino Armantradingout: Gijs Groot
45'
🔁Wassim bouzianeout: Julian Sijbrands
61'
🔁Kevin toppenbergout: Jasper Hartog
61'
77'
🔁Sebastian Karlsson Grachout: Ilias Boumassaoudi
🔁Hessel de Witout: Saviola Mourinho Simons Saffoe
81'
🔁Andrea Nataliout: Mathijs Menu
87'

Match stats — Jong AZ vs Den Bosch

62%Possession38%
15Shots17
5On target4
10Corners7
0.85xG0.94

Goals against chances

Jong AZ0 from 0.85 xGless than the chances were worth
Den Bosch1 from 0.94 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Jong AZ 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. ZeggenG
  • 2J. ZwartD
  • 3A. NataliD
  • 4F. AndersenD
  • 5K. IngeD
  • 6R. RobbemondM
  • 8J. OeripM
  • 7K. ToppenbergM
  • 10H. de WitM
  • 11Wassim bouzianeM
  • 9Jerolldino ArmantradingF
Substitutes
  • 21Julian SijbrandsM
  • 19Gijs GrootM
  • 18Bohdan BudkoM
  • 15J. EsajasD
  • 20J. HartogF
  • 16I. KaG
  • 14Mathijs MenuD
  • 17Saviola Mourinho Simons SaffoeD
  • 23J. SchipperG
Coach: Norbert Alblas
Den Bosch 3-1-4-2
  • 1P. van de MerbelG
  • 22Jeffry FortesD
  • 25Silvan BrokerD
  • 3S. MaasD
  • 18H. EikelboomM
  • 2S. BarglanM
  • 11J. De VriesM
  • 10Devon DecorteM
  • 33M. LarosM
  • 8K. MonzialoF
  • 9S. Karlsson GrachF
Substitutes
  • 31E. BijlsmaG
  • 40I. BoumassaoudiF
  • 55G. HesselsM
  • 27L. HoffmanF
  • 21F. MurreG
  • 17E. SemedoF
  • 16Wang BohaoM
  • 54Jari De KruijffM
  • 41K. de RooijD
Coach: Bart Schreuder

Form going into Jong AZ vs Den Bosch

Jong AZ

No earlier matches on record this season.

Den Bosch

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Dordrecht3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Jong AZ145273331+217
10Den Bosch155462426-219

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Jong AZ vs Den Bosch

  • 23 February 2026Jong AZ 2–2 Den BoschEerste Divisie
  • 26 September 2025Den Bosch 2–3 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 28 April 2025Jong AZ 0–0 Den BoschEerste Divisie
  • 16 August 2024Den Bosch 6–0 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 16 February 2024Den Bosch 0–0 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 11 December 2023Jong AZ 0–0 Den BoschEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Jong AZ and Den Bosch

Jong AZ

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

Den Bosch

GoalsAssists

  • S. Karlsson Grach60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Den Bosch won 1–0 at Jong AZ. The model had leaned towards a win for Jong AZ at 52% and given a win for Den Bosch 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Hessel Eikelboom 41' for Den Bosch. On expected goals it finished 0.85–0.94.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jong AZ a 14.6% chance to finish in the top four: 16.4% after a win, 12.6% after a draw, 10.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.9%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.

For Den Bosch the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 31.1% going in: 23.7% after a win, 29.9% after a draw, 34.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.7%, 7.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Jong AZ v Den Bosch has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 52% / 24% / 24%: the biggest move is Jong AZ's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Jong AZ win52%▲ +5
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Den Bosch win24%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.