9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Ouder-Amstel
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Jong Ajax 0-3 VVV Venlo.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Jong Ajax, 26% draw, 40% VVV Venlo — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

VVV Venlo at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Jong Ajax0%Draw1%VVV Venlo99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽Edhy Zulianiassist: Philip Heise
🔁Sinclair de Falcoout: Jahyendrow Amour
45'
Jano Monserrate
53'
58'
⚽L. Schmidt
59'
🔁L. Schmidtout: Mattheos Tsigkas
59'
🔁Mohammed Odrissout: Andreas Verstraeten
🔁Leo Salazarout: Diego Pugno
59'
Pharell Nash
64'
65'
⚽Philip Heise (pen)
🔁Jinairo Johnsonout: Abdoulaye Camara
73'
🔁Pharell Nashout: Jeshurun Simeon
73'
Diego Pugno
76'
78'
🔁Ismail Oulad M'Handout: Thomas Janssen
78'
🔁Edhy Zulianiout: Amir rais
82'
🔁Tristan Schenkhuizenout: Luis Gorlich
🔁emre unuvarout: Paulo Da Silva
85'

Match stats — Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo

40%Possession60%
13Shots19
3On target5
5Corners10
1.4xG2.39

Goals against chances

Jong Ajax0 from 1.40 xGless than the chances were worth
VVV Venlo3 from 2.39 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Jong Ajax 4-3-3
  • 1C. SetfordG
  • 2R. van de PavertD
  • 3G. SpinaD
  • 4M. MuzunguD
  • 5Sinclair de FalcoD
  • 6Jinairo JohnsonM
  • 10Alejandro MonserrateM
  • 8Mohamed AbdallaM
  • 7Leo SalazarF
  • 9E. ÜnüvarF
  • 11P. NashF
Substitutes
  • 16A. AppiahD
  • 19A. CamaraM
  • 12A. HaniG
  • 24A. MoumaneF
  • 22D. PugnoF
  • 21J. SimeonF
  • 23P. Da SilvaF
  • 17M. van der LansD
  • 25D. van der VaartM
Coach: Carlos García
VVV Venlo 4-2-3-1
  • 13Y. SchoonderwaldtG
  • 14Raf VullersD
  • 4É. ClancyD
  • 33G. BlancquartD
  • 16P. HeiseD
  • 8Ismail Oulad M'HandM
  • 38Tristan SchenkhuizenM
  • 7E. ZulianiM
  • 24M. OdrissM
  • 11N. Ait MouhouM
  • 17L. SchmidtF
Substitutes
  • 6A. VerstraetenM
  • 35Yousri El AnbriM
  • 22Zidane TaylanG
  • 31M. DavisD
  • 1T. DoornbuschG
  • 21L. GörlichD
  • 43D. HendrixF
  • 19Thomas JanssenF
  • 15Tijn JoostenD
Coach: Marinus Dijkhuizen

Form going into Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo

Jong Ajax

No earlier matches on record this season.

VVV Venlo

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Roda4 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Jong Ajax144462230-816
3VVV Venlo159243824+1429

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo

  • 17 March 2026VVV Venlo 0–1 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
  • 26 September 2025Jong Ajax 2–4 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • 7 March 2025VVV Venlo 1–0 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
  • 1 November 2024Jong Ajax 0–1 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • 3 May 2024VVV Venlo 2–0 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
  • 6 October 2023Jong Ajax 3–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo

Jong Ajax

GoalsAssists

  • E. Ünüvar80
  • D. Pugno62

VVV Venlo

GoalsAssists

  • É. Clancy51
  • L. Schmidt51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

VVV Venlo won 3–0 at Jong Ajax. The model had made a win for VVV Venlo its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Edhy Zuliani 4' for VVV Venlo, L. Schmidt 58' for VVV Venlo, Philip Heise (penalty) 65' for VVV Venlo. Sent off: Diego Pugno (Jong Ajax) 76'. On expected goals it finished 1.40–2.39.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jong Ajax a 35.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 28.6% after a win, 34.7% after a draw, 40.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.5%, 5.3 points higher than before the match.

For VVV Venlo the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 44.0% going in: 49.7% after a win, 42.7% after a draw, 37.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.7%, 5.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Jong Ajax v VVV Venlo has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 34% / 26% / 40%: the biggest move is VVV Venlo's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Jong Ajax win34%▼ −1
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. VVV Venlo win40%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.