30 August 2026, 12:00 UTC

FC Sion vs FC Lugano Super League prediction & result

Stade de Tourbillon, Sion
Full time1 – 2

Final score: FC Sion 1-2 FC Lugano.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% FC Sion, 28% draw, 31% FC Lugano — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Sion at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Sion0%Draw5%FC Lugano95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽D. Moncadaassist: A. Grgic
28'
Mattia Zanotti
46'
🔁D. Dos Santosout: U. Bislimi
46'
🔁D. Moncadaout: R. Steffen
⚽W. Boteliassist: Baltazar
55'
🔁F. Syllaout: J. Lukembila
68'
🔁D. Rrudhaniout: R. Nivokazi
69'
75'
🔁M. Zanottiout: B. Karimov
75'
🔁E. Pihlstromout: B. D. Castro Espinosa
🔁T. Berdayesout: B. Kololli
77'
🔁W. Boteliout: L. Chipperfield
77'
78'
🔁L. Maiout: D. Kelvin
79'
⚽B. D. Castro Espinosaassist: A. Kendouci
87'
Uran Bislimi
90+1'
Bekhruz Karimov

Match stats — FC Sion vs FC Lugano

58%Possession42%
18Shots7
6On target4
8Corners4
1.82xG0.67

Goals against chances

FC Sion1 from 1.82 xGless than the chances were worth
FC Lugano2 from 0.67 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Sion 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. RacioppiG
  • 14N. LavanchyD
  • 5N. SowD
  • 17J. KronigD
  • 6Marquinhos CiprianoD
  • 88A. KabacalmanM
  • 29T. BerdayesM
  • 37F. SyllaM
  • 8BaltazarM
  • 77D. RrudhaniM
  • 13W. BoteliF
Substitutes
  • 12F. RubertoG
  • 38R. KesslerD
  • 20N. HeftiD
  • 10B. KololliM
  • 21L. ChipperfieldM
  • 33R. NivokaziF
  • 19F. SurdezF
  • 7I. ChouarefF
  • 9J. LukembilaF
Coach: Didier Tholot
FC Lugano 3-1-4-2
  • 16D. von BallmoosG
  • 6A. PapadopoulosD
  • 17L. MaiD
  • 18J. BichselD
  • 8A. GrgicM
  • 46M. ZanottiM
  • 14A. KendouciM
  • 27D. Dos SantosM
  • 21Y. CimignaniM
  • 30D. MoncadaF
  • 24E. PihlstromF
Substitutes
  • 28F. GebhardtG
  • 4D. KelvinD
  • 2B. KarimovD
  • 3H. DelcroixD
  • 44CarboneD
  • 25U. BislimiM
  • 23G. AjdinM
  • 22B. D. Castro EspinosaF
  • 11R. SteffenF
Coach: Mattia Croci-Torti

Form going into FC Sion vs FC Lugano

FC Sion

All competitions we cover

  • L3-5away to Ajax27 August 2026
  • L2-4Ajax20 August 2026
  • W2-1FC Noah13 August 2026
  • W3-2FC Vaduz9 August 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Noah6 August 2026

FC Lugano

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Maccabi Tel Aviv27 August 2026
  • W2-1Maccabi Tel Aviv20 August 2026
  • D2-2away to NSI Runavik13 August 2026
  • W5-0FC Zurich9 August 2026
  • W2-0NSI Runavik6 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Sion scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Sion conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for FC Sion had three goals or more.
  • FC Lugano went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3FC Sion138232918+1126
1FC Lugano1311113615+2134

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Sion vs FC Lugano

  • 14 May 2026FC Sion 2–2 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 4 March 2026FC Lugano 2–1 FC SionSuper League
  • 29 November 2025FC Lugano 1–1 FC SionSuper League
  • 3 August 2025FC Sion 4–0 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 9 March 2025FC Sion 2–1 FC LuganoSuper League

Leading scorers: FC Sion and FC Lugano

FC Sion

GoalsAssists

  • Winsley Boteli Mokango64
  • R. Nivokazi50

FC Lugano

GoalsAssists

  • Daniel Dos Santos51
  • D. Moncada51
  • Y. Cimignani40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Lugano won 2–1 at FC Sion. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Sion at 41% and given a win for FC Lugano 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: D. Moncada 3' for FC Lugano, W. Boteli 55' for FC Sion, B. D. Castro Espinosa 79' for FC Lugano. On expected goals it finished 1.82–0.67.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.