FC St. Gallen vs FC Thun Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC St. Gallen 3-4 FC Thun.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% FC St. Gallen, 26% draw, 24% FC Thun — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC St. Gallen at 50% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC St. Gallen vs FC Thun
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. Ati ZigiG
- 74J. RuizD
- 4J. StanicD
- 36C. OkorojiD
- 64M. StevanovicM
- 28H. VandermerschM
- 16L. GortlerM
- 10L. DaschnerM
- 7C. WitzigM
- 31D. BesioF
- 14A. BaldeF
- 25L. WatkowiakG
- 3C. Kleine-BekelD
- 68M. Heydari
- 20L. Frokaj
- 63C. KonietzkeM
- 47E. OwusuM
- 70N. ScherrerF
- 1N. SteffenG
- 47F. FehrD
- 19J. BamertD
- 5N. BurgyD
- 23M. BurkiD
- 70N. ReichmuthM
- 8F. Saiz
- 16J. RothM
- 18T. StrannegardM
- 96B. LabeauF
- 9F. DursunF
- 25T. SpycherG
- 54L. PassavantD
- 37L. DahlerD
- 14M. KaitM
- 13N. ZoukitM
- 21D. DerbaciM
- 80S. LengenF
- 30N. MaierM
- 20R. BraschiF
Form going into FC St. Gallen vs FC Thun
FC St. Gallen
- L2-3FC Nordsjaelland27 August 2026
- L0-1away to FC Nordsjaelland20 August 2026
- W5-1Sheriff Tiraspol13 August 2026
- D2-2FC Luzern9 August 2026
- W3-1away to Sheriff Tiraspol6 August 2026
FC Thun
- D2-2Lech Poznan27 August 2026
- L0-7away to Lech Poznan20 August 2026
- L2-3away to Vikingur Reykjavik13 August 2026
- L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026
- W3-0Vikingur Reykjavik6 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC St. Gallen | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Thun | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC St. Gallen vs FC Thun
- 30 August 2026FC St. Gallen 3–4 FC ThunSuper League
- 17 May 2026FC St. Gallen 1–1 FC ThunSuper League
- 5 March 2026FC Thun 2–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 13 December 2025FC Thun 0–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 4 October 2025FC St. Gallen 1–2 FC ThunSuper League
- 25 June 2022FC Thun 3–3 FC St. GallenFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: FC St. Gallen and FC Thun
FC St. Gallen
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
FC Thun
- B. Labeau3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.