30 August 2026, 14:30 UTC

FC St. Gallen vs FC Thun Super League prediction & result

Kybunpark, St. Gallen
Full time3 – 4

Final score: FC St. Gallen 3-4 FC Thun.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% FC St. Gallen, 26% draw, 24% FC Thun — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC St. Gallen at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC St. Gallen0%Draw1%FC Thun99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽B. Labeau
42'
Tom Strannegård
45+2'
Niklas Steffen
🔁D. Besioout: L. Frokaj
46'
47'
⚽N. Reichmuthassist: F. Dursun
⚽L. Frokajassist: A. Balde
48'
Lukas Görtler
51'
53'
⚽B. Labeauassist: F. Dursun
58'
⚽F. Dursunassist: F. Saiz
61'
🔁F. Dursunout: S. Lengen
🔁J. Stanicout: C. Kleine-Bekel
67'
🔁M. Stevanovicout: E. Owusu
67'
🔁C. Witzigout: N. Scherrer
67'
72'
🔁N. Reichmuthout: N. Maier
72'
🔁B. Labeauout: R. Braschi
Hugo Vandermersch
74'
⚽N. Scherrerassist: C. Okoroji
75'
🔁H. Vandermerschout: C. Konietzke
79'
79'
🔁M. Burkiout: L. Passavant
79'
🔁J. Rothout: M. Kait
⚽L. Daschnerassist: E. Owusu
90'

Match stats — FC St. Gallen vs FC Thun

68%Possession32%
25Shots7
7On target5
6Corners1
2.88xG1.26

Goals against chances

FC St. Gallen3 from 2.88 xGabout what the chances were worth
FC Thun4 from 1.26 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC St. Gallen 3-1-4-2
  • 1L. Ati ZigiG
  • 74J. RuizD
  • 4J. StanicD
  • 36C. OkorojiD
  • 64M. StevanovicM
  • 28H. VandermerschM
  • 16L. GortlerM
  • 10L. DaschnerM
  • 7C. WitzigM
  • 31D. BesioF
  • 14A. BaldeF
Substitutes
  • 25L. WatkowiakG
  • 3C. Kleine-BekelD
  • 68M. Heydari
  • 20L. Frokaj
  • 63C. KonietzkeM
  • 47E. OwusuM
  • 70N. ScherrerF
Coach: Enrico Maassen
FC Thun 4-4-2
  • 1N. SteffenG
  • 47F. FehrD
  • 19J. BamertD
  • 5N. BurgyD
  • 23M. BurkiD
  • 70N. ReichmuthM
  • 8F. Saiz
  • 16J. RothM
  • 18T. StrannegardM
  • 96B. LabeauF
  • 9F. DursunF
Substitutes
  • 25T. SpycherG
  • 54L. PassavantD
  • 37L. DahlerD
  • 14M. KaitM
  • 13N. ZoukitM
  • 21D. DerbaciM
  • 80S. LengenF
  • 30N. MaierM
  • 20R. BraschiF
Coach: Luca Privitelli Gian

Form going into FC St. Gallen vs FC Thun

FC St. Gallen

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3FC Nordsjaelland27 August 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Nordsjaelland20 August 2026
  • W5-1Sheriff Tiraspol13 August 2026
  • D2-2FC Luzern9 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Sheriff Tiraspol6 August 2026

FC Thun

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Lech Poznan27 August 2026
  • L0-7away to Lech Poznan20 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Vikingur Reykjavik13 August 2026
  • L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026
  • W3-0Vikingur Reykjavik6 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC St. Gallen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC St. Gallen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for FC St. Gallen had three goals or more.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for FC Thun had three goals or more.
  • FC Thun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Thun scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4FC St. Gallen137152422+222
8FC Thun134272737-1014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC St. Gallen vs FC Thun

  • 17 May 2026FC St. Gallen 1–1 FC ThunSuper League
  • 5 March 2026FC Thun 2–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
  • 13 December 2025FC Thun 0–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
  • 4 October 2025FC St. Gallen 1–2 FC ThunSuper League
  • 25 June 2022FC Thun 3–3 FC St. GallenFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: FC St. Gallen and FC Thun

FC St. Gallen

GoalsAssists

  • L. Görtler42
  • A. Hunziker40

FC Thun

GoalsAssists

  • B. Labeau61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Thun won 4–3 at FC St. Gallen. The model had leaned towards a win for FC St. Gallen at 50% and given a win for FC Thun 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: B. Labeau 9' for FC Thun, N. Reichmuth 47' for FC Thun, L. Frokaj 48' for FC St. Gallen, B. Labeau 53' for FC Thun, F. Dursun 58' for FC Thun, N. Scherrer 75' for FC St. Gallen, L. Daschner 90' for FC St. Gallen. On expected goals it finished 2.88–1.26.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.