8 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

FC St. Gallen vs FC Lugano Super League prediction & result

Kybunpark, St. Gallen
Full time5 – 0

Final score: FC St. Gallen 5-0 FC Lugano.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% FC St. Gallen, 26% draw, 50% FC Lugano — fair odds of 4.17, 3.85 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Lugano at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC St. Gallen99%Draw1%FC Lugano0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Albian Ajeti
11'
David von Ballmoos
26'
🔁David von Ballmoosout: Felix Gebhard
29'
Daniel Dos Santos Correia
⚽Chima Okorojiassist: Lukas Daschner
33'
⚽Andrin Hunzikerassist: Lukas Daschner
34'
Tom Gaal
40'
⚽Tom Gaalassist: Lukas Görtler
45+2'
45'
🔁Daniel Dos Santos Correiaout: Kevin Behrens
🔁Tom Gaalout: Colin Noah Kleine-Bekel
45'
65'
🔁Mattia Zanottiout: Behruzjon Karimov
65'
🔁Martim Marquesout: Ezdjan Alijoski
⚽Andrin Hunzikerassist: Chima Okoroji
66'
🔁Hugo Vandermerschout: Joel Ruiz
67'
🔁Andrin Hunzikerout: Aliou Balde
68'
72'
Behruzjon Karimov
🔁Lukas Görtlerout: Betim Fazliji
76'
🔁Lukas Daschnerout: Leon Frokaj
80'
80'
🔁Uran Bislimiout: Renato Steffen
⚽Leon Frokajassist: Joel Ruiz
84'

Match stats — FC St. Gallen vs FC Lugano

60%Possession40%
19Shots14
7On target4
7Corners3
2.26xG0.76

Goals against chances

FC St. Gallen5 from 2.26 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Lugano0 from 0.76 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC St. Gallen 3-1-4-2
  • 1L. ZigiG
  • 26T. GaalD
  • 4J. StanićD
  • 68M. HeydariD
  • 64M. StevanovicM
  • 28H. VandermerschM
  • 16L. GörtlerM
  • 10L. DaschnerM
  • 36C. OkorojiM
  • 11C. BoukhalfaF
  • 9A. HunzikerF
Substitutes
  • 70N. ScherrerF
  • 25L. WatkowiakG
  • 14A. BaldeF
  • 27K. CsobothM
  • 23B. FazlijiM
  • 20L. FrokajM
  • 3C. Kleine-BekelD
  • 74J. RuizD
Coach: E. Maaßen
FC Lugano 3-5-1-1
  • 16D. von BallmoosG
  • 6A. PapadopoulosD
  • 17L. MaiD
  • 18J. BichselD
  • 46M. ZanottiM
  • 21Y. CimignaniM
  • 8A. GrgićM
  • 25U. BislimiM
  • 26Martim MarquesM
  • 27Daniel Dos SantosM
  • 9A. AjetiF
Substitutes
  • 22B. CastroF
  • 28F. GebhardtG
  • 2B. KarimovD
  • 4D. KelvinD
  • 14A. KendouciM
  • 24E. PihlströmF
  • 11R. SteffenF
  • 7E. AlioskiD
  • 91K. BehrensF
Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Form going into FC St. Gallen vs FC Lugano

FC St. Gallen

Super League

  • W2-1Servette FC31 October 2026
  • L0-2away to BSC Young Boys24 October 2026
  • W1-0Lausanne11 October 2026
  • W3-1away to FC Basel 189320 September 2026

FC Lugano

Super League

  • W2-1FC Basel 18931 November 2026
  • W3-2away to FC Thun25 October 2026
  • W4-0FC Luzern10 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Lausanne20 September 2026

What these results say

  • FC St. Gallen won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC St. Gallen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC St. Gallen conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC Lugano won every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Lugano scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for FC Lugano had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4FC St. Gallen137152422+222
1FC Lugano1311113615+2134

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC St. Gallen vs FC Lugano

  • 16 September 2026FC Lugano 4–1 FC St. GallenSuper League
  • 10 May 2026FC Lugano 1–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
  • 17 March 2026FC St. Gallen 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 26 November 2025FC Lugano 1–3 FC St. GallenSuper League
  • 13 September 2025FC St. Gallen 1–0 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 13 April 2025FC Lugano 1–1 FC St. GallenSuper League

Leading scorers: FC St. Gallen and FC Lugano

FC St. Gallen

GoalsAssists

  • L. Görtler42
  • A. Hunziker40

FC Lugano

GoalsAssists

  • Daniel Dos Santos51
  • D. Moncada51
  • Y. Cimignani40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC St. Gallen beat FC Lugano 5–0. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Lugano at 50% and given a win for FC St. Gallen 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Chima Okoroji 33' for FC St. Gallen, Andrin Hunziker 34' for FC St. Gallen, Tom Gaal 45+2' for FC St. Gallen, Andrin Hunziker 66' for FC St. Gallen, Leon Frokaj 84' for FC St. Gallen. Sent off: Albian Ajeti (FC Lugano) 11'. On expected goals it finished 2.26–0.76.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC St. Gallen these chances to finish in the top six: 90.8% after a win, 82.1% after a draw, 77.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 90.8%.

For FC Lugano the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 96.4% going in: 98.2% after a win, 95.2% after a draw, 94.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 94.0%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC St. Gallen v FC Lugano has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 22% / 26% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 24% / 26% / 50%: the biggest move is FC St. Gallen's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. FC St. Gallen win24%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%=
  3. FC Lugano win50%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.